Thursday, February 25, 2010

Valdes in Venezuela, exiled?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Obviously, the presence of General Valdes in Venezuela is closely related to the Cuban colonization process that Chavez has been promoting. However, from the perspective of Raul Castro, the exit of Valdes from Cuba could have further implications.

Since Raul took power in Cuba, the changes that have been made have led to the removal of key figures of the old order -Jose Luis Rodriguez, Carlos Lage and Felipe Perez Roque-, so it was logical to expect that other Fidelismo's important pieces were changed at any time.

Valdes was one of the most emblematic figures of Fidel-style Castrismo, and his position was absolutely consolidated within the previous regime, but perhaps a person with his authority and contacts would put at risk the changes advanced by Raul and the emergent ruling class. Also, dying Fidel, Valdes had the potential to become one of the most dangerous politicians in Cuba, reasons for getting him out of the way would seem inevitable.

The truth is that it is highly suspicious that someone of his advanced age -78- and so important in the Cuban bureaucracy, has been suddenly assigned to a mission abroad. Raul could well have sent someone else to continue the colonization of Venezuela and, equally, charging the sum of 2500 million dollars -paid by the Chavez government-. Valdes was not the only one who could do the work in Venezuela, but yes one of the few who would need to be removed by Raulismo.

Ramiro Valdes was sent to the foreign legion, and in Venezuela he is very far from being the same powerful person he was in Cuba.


Related articles:

- Venezuelan electricity crisis addressed a la Cubana

- Cuban oil dependency: Venezuela's importance

- Unity Summit: Yes to Castro, no to Lobo

Monday, February 22, 2010

Latin American Unity Summit: Yes to Castro, no to Lobo

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net
The Rio Group is met in Mexico in the so-called "Unity Summit of Latin America and the Caribbean”. This meeting will discuss a series of regional issues, but it is noteworthy that the president of Honduras was not invited for failing to meet democratic standards of some of the participating countries. Contradictorily, while they deny the participation of Honduras in the forum, they celebrate Cuba's intervention.
Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay and Uruguay, who do not recognize the government of Honduras and reject its participation in the Cancun meeting, forget that in this country the people elected their representatives by universal suffrage. However, in Cuba, a regime has based its authority solely on repression, and its current president received the power by direct appointment of the former dictator.
So it seems that for many Latin American politicians is more democratic the appointment of Raul Castro, than the election of Porfirio Lobo. In other words, according to their understanding of democratic standards and international law, the will of Fidel Castro deserves more recognition than the will of Honduran people.

Related articles:

Friday, February 19, 2010

Venezuelan legislative election: Chavista leaders are not Chavez

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

One the major difficulties faced by Hugo Chavez in the legislative elections of September 2010, is the popularity of his candidates. It is not the same to be a Chavez fan than a follower of the PSUV candidates, as seen in past non-presidential elections in Venezuela.

Chavez has always proven far more popular than his candidates, as noted, for example, in the regional elections of 2008. A moment in which chavismo lost the Venezuela's most important governorships despite Chavez's high approval ratings -he slightly exceeded the 60% according to the Venezuelan leading pollsters-.

But things have become more difficult for the current Venezuelan president. Now his popularity has fallen to just under 50%, therefore the vote that Chavez's candidates will receive in 2010 should be more impaired.

It is very likely that Chavez will manage to lift his popularity as September approaches, however, his candidates will still be less magnetic than the PSUV's principal leader.

"It's not the same to vote for Chavez than to vote for his candidates," is still a valid assumption in today's Venezuela. And there is no reason to believe that this will be different in the parliamentary elections of 2010.


Related articles:

- Polls for Venezuela's legislative election

- Radical leftists more affected than the moderates

- Venezuelan electricity crisis addressed a la Cubana

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Polls for Venezuela's legislative election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Venezuelans will elect a new National Assembly on September 26, 2010. In these elections, the first opinion surveys indicate that the race will be interesting.

According to Consultores 21, if parliamentary elections take place at this moment, the opposition candidates would count with 52% of the vote, which would give them control of the assembly. However, IVAD estimates that if the elections were held now, the chavism would get 32.6% of the votes, the opposition 20.8% and 33.1% would favor independent candidates. Hinterlaces, on the other hand, shows that the government has 28% of voting intention, the opposition 26% and 34% of the electorate has no partisan bias.

That is, in the independent sector of the population is the factor that will decide who wins the legislative election in Venezuela. On this, we must say that these voters has leaned towards the ruling party in the past, a trend that will be tested in the upcoming election because this year there are new variables that are detrimental to chavism. Among them we can cite the weak economy, the mega-devaluation and the national electricity crisis.


Related articles:

- Radical leftists more affected than the moderates

- Venezuelan electricity crisis addressed a la Cubana

- Chavez's black Friday

Friday, February 5, 2010

Venezuelan exports encouraged by devaluation?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The maxi-devaluation against the bolivar, decreed by Chavez earlier this year, is seen by some economists as an exchange rate adjustment that would benefit the Venezuelan exporting sector, as their prices become cheaper to buyers with dollars. This idea has its foundation in the business practices that countries like China and Japan use to protect their domestic producers.

However, while it is true that some governments intervene in the foreign exchange market as part of their trade policy, the Venezuelan case is different:

1) We do not know any government in world history that had enacted a maxi-devaluation of 100% as a way to increase its exports. Those who practice this usually intervene in the market to maintain exchange rate stability, not to involve their currencies in intense macroeconomic traumas.

2) During the 11 years that Chavez has been in power, misguided economic policies have caused a permanent devaluation of the bolivar; notwithstanding, this has not coincided with a rise in Venezuelan exports.

3) The Chavez government has not the habit of taking measures to promote private capital, whether or not it is exporter. Chavez's socialist ideals are not compatible with a strengthened private sector, so it is incongruous to assume that the government that makes something every day to devastate the independent production sector, is the same government that devalues its currency to increase domestic producers' exports.

4) Due to point number 3, Venezuela had never before been so dependent on its energy exports. 80% of Venezuela's international sales are represented by oil and oil products, commodities that needs no special incentives to encourage their consumption abroad.

Consequently, the maxi-devaluation enacted by Chavez is far from being a trade policy, as claimed by some experts. Neither in theory nor in practice, economic conditions in Venezuela suggest that a exchange rate mega-depreciation would lead to increased exports. By devaluing the Venezuelan currency, the Chavez's real benefit is to obtain more bolivars from Venezuela's oil sales.


Related articles:

- Maxi-devaluation in Venezuela, without a rise in prices?

- Chavez's black Friday

- Venezuelan oil myth: The vital supplier