Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Polls for Lima's mayoral election

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

On October 3, Lima residents will vote to choose a new mayor. According to Ipsos-Apoyo, voting intentions are Susana Villaran 42% and Lourdes Flores 28%. Other candidates appear with little chance of winning in this study.

Villaran is from the left, from the Fuerza Social party, but she says not to share the ideas of radical leftism on the grounds that the modern left is represented by Bachelet, Lula and Mujica.

For her part, Flores is from the Unidad Nacional party, centrist, representatives of Christian democracy in Peru.

Whoever wins will replace the current mayor, Luis Castañeda Lossio, from the Solidaridad Nacional party, also centrist.


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Monday, September 13, 2010

The Fidel Castro we didn't know

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In 1962, Fidel Castro threatened the U.S. with nuclear missiles, however, in the XXI century, the former Cuban dictator seems to prefer to launch rockets against other targets, this time directed at Latin American leftist ideology, of which himself was a notorious representative.

"The Cuban model doesn't even work", echoed last week across the international press. Normally someone would hear this phrase and would think it is from a speech by Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush, but no, not even are words from a neo-conservative Republican, they belong to the commander of the Cuban Revolution, Fidel Castro, no more and no less.

For less counter-revolutionary phrases than this, Castro sent to jail dozens of people, many were shot and several others were beaten, tortured, or lynched. Notwithstanding, Castro now says something similar and his words receive the respect of all the spokesmen of the revolution, and there is no one who dares to imprison him. A fact that, paradoxically, is in agreement with the sentence Fidel said about the Cuban model, since it is also an example of the double standard of Castro's socialism.

Amazingly, Castro spoke these words when the world is just emerging from the financial crisis that many believed would destroy capitalism, and less than 20 days before the parliamentary elections in Venezuela, where his main wannabe, Hugo Chavez, will face a tough fight for the control of the legislature.

This year, Fidel has made several controversial comments. Initially, he said that socialism and communism are the same, then admitted that he made a mistake by brutally persecuting homosexuals (they were imprisoned and made to work in concentration camps), then he called for respect for the Israeli people, and now claims that the Cuban political-economic model, that that the Latin American left presented as an unparalleled wonder, is not adequate to generate social welfare even in Cuba, which debunks some of the ideological tenets of radical leftism both in and outside Latin America.

They said the poverty in Cuba was the product of the U.S. trade embargo, but Fidel's words show he's aware that the real culprit is the socialist model that he copied from the Soviet Union.

Years ago, Gabriel Garcia Marquez, in his article "The Fidel Castro I know," spoke about the same legendary leader who was promoted by the Cuban Revolution's propaganda. But the current is a more real character, the Fidel Castro we didn't know.


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Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Venezuela: A less rigid exchange rate regime?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Since chavistas removed, in May, the way to buy dollars through stock brokers, we've heard rumors that Chavez would relax currency controls due to the upcoming election and the shortages of certain food items. But given the realities described below, we are inclined to think the government has in mind something different.

The exchange rate controls are for chavismo a domination mechanism, perfect to reward allies and punish enemies. Plus, it's wonderfully useful to weaken the big companies that have not been socialized.

Moreover, Chavez don't has the same amount of international reserves than before, which, among other things, prevent the government from burning dollars, as in the past years, through ridiculous semiannual bond issues -purchased with bolivares but sold for foreign currencies-.

We must also take into account the relationship between some chavista businessmen and the subsidized dollars, of which there is no need to say much...

Additionally, it's necessary to talk about the Cubans in Venezuela. We should recall that the free exchange of foreign currency does not exist in Cuba, the country that supply the chavismo's most important advisors and Hugo Chavez's ideological inspiration. On the island of Castro, the control over the currency is used as a method of subjection and economic decisions are based in primitive socialist notions, according to which, if paralyzing controls are imposed on the private sector, the fullness of economic anomalies are corrected. Ideas that have found influential fans in Venezuela.

All of which leads us to conclude that it is quite difficult that Chavez will soften his exchange rate policy in the near future. In fact, this scenario seems unlikely before, after the September election, or even in the next two years.


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