José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net
Argentines will go to elections on 23 October, in a process that would be two rounds unless one of these conditions are met: 1) a candidate obtains 45% of the vote in the first round, or 2) a candidate obtains 40% of the vote with at least a 10% margin over the second place candidate.
According to the latest survey, conducted by Nueva Comunicación in mid-June, President Cristina Fernandez leads the voting intentions with 34.3%; followed by Ricardo Alfonsin with 16.7%; Eduardo Duhalde with 12.3%; Hermes Binner with 8%; Elisa Carrio with 8%; and Alberto Rodriguez Saá with 7.7%. In the study, respondents who answered "other" accounted for 3.7% of the sample, while those who do not know yet reached 7.4%, for a margin of error of 4.08%.
Assuming these results, the first thing that stands out is that President Fernandez would have high chances of being victorious in the first round, despite her hard line against the independent press and farmers, the corruption scandals, and the high levels of inflation that the country has suffered since her arrival to the presidency.
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