Saturday, March 17, 2012

Polls for Venezuela's presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

There will be presidential election in Venezuela on October 7. In this race, Hugo Chavez Frias, representing the incumbent party, will compete against Henrique Capriles Radonsky, the opposition's candidate.

The first public opinion reports about this election show that the current president has a considerable advantage over his opponent. According to a study of IVAD, mid-February, Chavez has 57.7% of voting intention, while Capriles holds 29,9%. Similar results found International Consulting Services, who said late February that Chavez has 58,7% and Capriles 25,7%.

In March, the measurements of Hinterlaces and Consultores 30.11 do not differ either from those presented above. Hinterlaces shows Chavez and Capriles with 52% and 34% respectively, and Consultores 30.11 with 57,5% and 26.6%.

It should be noted, however, that previous reports of these organizations have been wrong on several past elections. For example, IVAD and Datanálisis said the government was going to obtain more votes than the opposition in the parliamentary elections of 2010; and Hinterlaces claimed, also in 2010, that the PPT would become one of the main Venezuelan political parties, due to the high vote it would receive in the legislative elections.

03-22-2012: Consultores 21: Chávez 45%, Capriles 46%.


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Friday, March 2, 2012

Venezuela: Capriles or the uncertainty?

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Will Hugo Chavez remain in power until the presidential elections? How sick is he? Is there someone in his party that can replace him? Can he make a successful campaign under such conditions? There will be presidential elections on October 7? What can happen in Venezuela if Chavez dies? At this moment, no one can provide that information, considering we are talking about a regime that claims to be an example of democracy for the world.

The coming months will be hard to foresee in Venezuela. If Chavez returns from this new hospitalization, he will announce that this time it's all over, but no one will believe him because he said the same thing the first time. His return will only increase the rumors that his illness is terminal or that is part of an unscrupulous electoral strategy, adding further doubts to the atmosphere of misinformation.

If there are elections in October, and Chavez wins, no one can say how long he can stay in charge, that is, not even a hypothetical victory of the Bolivarian Revolution leader in the upcoming elections will end the confusion in Venezuela.

And if he dies or appoints a successor, before or after the elections, the unity of the ruling party will be tested. The acting president would have neither the charisma nor the authority of his predecessor to maintain the internal cohesion, and we do not know the risky scenarios in which the country could enter.

A victory of the opposition's candidate, Henrique Capriles Radonsky, would be the solution to these labyrinths. His government will confront surely a hard instability period at the beginning, but maybe it will be the most reliable option in the medium term.


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