Elections in Honduras can be credible

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

According to Ban Ki-Moon, UN secretary general, in Honduras there are no conditions for holding credible elections that lead to peace and security. Nonetheless, we think that in this country the citizen's vote is a viable alternative, despite the obstacles that threaten it.

Comparatively, in other conflicts where elections have been proposed to overcome the difficulties, they have had good results, and have been conducted in even worse circumstances than those of Honduras. There have for example the case of the electoral process that pacified Nicaragua in 1990, or the plebiscite that ended Pinochet's dictatorship.

And if the concern is the elections' transparency, the Honduras government can be pressed to improve the international observation, or the UN can suggest mechanisms to increase citizen oversight of the electoral process. But the problem is that the UN does not address the issue, but merely consider Zelaya's return to power as the only option.

In short, the Honduran election can be credible and may represent a long-term solution, because as we have said, the challenges are surmountable. In other regions of the world multilateral agencies encourage conflict resolution through elections; however, we do not understand why in the case of Honduras the world is denied that citizens decide their future by voting.

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The post-financial crisis: Dependence on the dollar

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

About the dollar's status in the scenario of the post-financial crisis, another factor that would side with the U.S. currency would be the still strong dependence of the global economy on the Yankees.

The United States remains the main consumer of goods and services on the planet. The exporting powers -China, Japan, Germany- as well as the most oil-producing countries and suppliers of raw materials, base much of their economies on exports to the United States.

Also, the United States remains the largest recipient of savings and investments in the world. From central banks to Arab oil tycoons, who has wealth generally has a significant part of it in dollars -whether in savings, paper stock, or real estate-

According to these realities, a violent depreciation of the Yankee currency would hurt the earnings of those who receive dollars as payment, and would cause losses in those with assets valued in that currency. Two unpleasant effects that would impact primarily on governments.

Consequently, while the global economy maintains a strong dependence on the U.S. currency, the whole world will be interested in a dollar that retains a relatively stable value. And in economics, convenience is often more decisive than the supply and demand.

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Zelaya returns to Honduras to prevent elections

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Given the fact that in Honduras there will be elections in November to elect a new president, Manuel Zelaya rushed back to Honduran territory. An action that has the task of trying to disrupt the upcoming elections because it doesn't suit him from any point of view.

If the November vote occurs, the elected president will be an authority that will have the recognition of most of the people and all Honduran institutions. Situation that would leave Zelaya trying to overthrow a president who entirely meets the constitutional requirements to hold office.

Moreover, according to opinion polls, the political organizations that support Zelaya in Honduras have no chance of claiming victory in the upcoming elections. This implies that electoral competition is not a realistic strategy for Zelaya's followers to regain control of the country.

Then, Zelaya knows that his cause will be lost if the elections are conducted. His presence will seek to add street protests to the international community's pressure, in order to prevent Hondurans from voting.

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What did the Juanes concert in Cuba symbolize?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

For the hard-line Latin American democratic thought, the Juanes presentation in Cuba was interpreted as a betrayal, because it saw the show as a vote of recognition to the regime. However, this event could be read from another perspective:

Juanes, Miguel Bose and Olga Tañon are one of the most important representatives of the entertainment capitalism in Latin America and Spain. What these artists symbolize is globalization, current trends, status, individuality, consumerism, freedom, and values very different from those that once were promoted by the Cuban government.

In Fidel's Cuba, characterized by backwardness, repression, intolerance and isolation, it would have been unthinkable a show featuring open societies icons.

But by mutual agreement, the government of Cuba and the singers installed platforms at the emblematic Revolution Square, as if to demonstrate to Cubans the other world that exists outside of socialist oppression.

So the Juanes concert in Havana represents something never seen during the Fidel era: Cuba opening up to international culture. Symbols of change that undermine the foundations of the undemocratic regime built by Fidel Castro.

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Honduras crisis: Foreigners hinder the electoral solution

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The OAS, the EU and the US have said they will not recognize the presidential elections scheduled for November in Honduras, unless Zelaya is put back in office. Assuming a posture that will try to ignore the Honduran popular sovereignty, and hamper the only reasonable solution to the political crisis in that country.

If the international community does not recognize the upcoming elections it will try to illegitimate the Honduran popular sovereignty, because it will ignores the vote that people will cast on election day. Ironically, doing the same thing that Michelleti is accused of doing.

Besides, that position will put obstacles to the most rational way out to the crisis, as apart from elections, the other option is to return Zelaya to power, as the OAS claims. But this scenario would not satisfy neither Honduras' legislative and judicial powers, nor the large portion of Hondurans who accuse Zelaya of violating the Constitution.

Ergo, the position of the international community regarding the upcoming elections in Honduras complicates matters, while leaving the following question to the inhabitants of the planet: The legitimate President of Honduras will be that recognized by foreign governments, or will be that elected by Hondurans in universal suffrage?

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Chavez's ineffective repression

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

With the recent imprisonment of 11 Town Hall workers, a student activist and the Prefect of Caracas, Chavez is sending a message to intimidate his opponents, in an attempt to stop the countless protests witnessed daily in Venezuela.

Unfortunately for Chavismo, silencing dissent through repression is a formula that has proven highly ineffective in Venezuela.

Since Chavez came to power, his government has sought to intimidate opponents. Chavistas have used insults, racism, threats, mass firings, blacklisting, closure of independent media, prosecution, imprisonment, human rights violations, tax penalties, armed gangs, toxic gases, beatings, and finally, a perpetual policy of repression and violence that, in theory, should have already intimidated the population.

But in the case of Venezuela, ten years of government repression have not had the desired effect on the opposition: In 2007 people said "No" to the referendum to transform Venezuela into a socialist state, in 2008 the electorate punished Chavismo by removing it from the major regional powers of Venezuela, in 2009 Chavez had to suffer to win the constitutional amendment, the international press is now completely adverse to Chavez, the anti-government protests bloom everywhere, and the opposition is today more numerous than ever. Which is sufficient to cast doubt on the effectiveness of Cuban dictatorial methods in Venezuela.

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Ecuador's draft media law

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Click here to download -in Spanish- the draft organic law of communication that Ecuador's government wants to approve to censor the independent press in that country.

It seems important to mention Article 48 of this project, which defines the Superintendency of Telecommunications and Media as a body that monitors, audits, intervenes and controls the media -four verbs related to repression-

Besides, Article 49 states that the superintendent of media "shall be appointed by the Council of Civic Participation and Social Control from among a list proposed by the President of the Republic." That is, those proposed by the president are the only eligible for the superintendent, which annihilates any possibility of autonomy.

Thus, the two points before explained leads to two important conclusions about the superintendent of media that this project suggests: 1) It will be an office of control over freedom of expression, and 2) It will serve the purpose of the Executive branch in Ecuador.

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Poll: Ignorance has been significant for Latin American leftist extremism

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

During August 2009, we made the following question to the visitors of our Spanish website Morochos.org:

What has been the key factor for the success of some left-wing radical movements in Latin America?

We gave three options and each received the following percentage of votes:

1) Weak institutions, 17%

2) Ignorance, 53%

3) Poverty, 30%

Observations:

Although these three factors may have fueled the socialist extremism that now plagues Latin America, most say that ignorance is the key variable.

And then, the truth is that some Latin American political ideas are far from satisfactory. For example, a good percentage of Latinos think that socialism and welfare is the same; that Cuba is the world's most advanced country; that the personalist movements of Chavez, Peron, and Castro have been resounding successes; that the only way to achieve development is destroying the United States; that middle-class and entrepreneurs are synonymous; that the IMF is to blame, not the bad politicians; and that democracy works in Europe but not in Latin America, just to mention some of those beliefs based on fallacies.

However, here too we can discern that information is one of the best ways to combat this socialist extremism.

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Defects of Chavez's electricity policy

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

During the government of President Chavez, Venezuelans have experienced the deterioration of the electrical power system. Here are the points where, in our opinion, are the principal weaknesses of the Venezuelan government in terms of national electricity policy:

- It is not clear: Because the government does not explain to Venezuelans the energy crisis we face and does not admit that it is rationing the service.

- It's improvised: The electricity crisis is happening because the government did not make on time the plans for development -and maintenance- of power plants that meet the citizens' demands.

- It is irresponsible: The service is suspended arbitrarily and repeatedly, damaging a lot of electronics, but the government do not compensate the losses.

- It is Dependent: Being Venezuela an oil exporting country and an energy superpower, still today we have to import electricity from Colombia.

- It is unjust: Because Chavez builds power plants in other countries but neglects this need of the Venezuelans.

- It's exclusionary and discriminatory: Because the government ordered the most drastic energy rationing in the interior of the country, so that Caracas and major cities can have electricity. Thereby increasing the development gap and centralism.

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Chavez's exchange rate policy dilemma

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The Chavez government has lately been showing concern about what is happening in the dollar black market. It has tried several strategies but there is no way to get people to stop buying dollars at the unofficial price, which progressively increase the gap between the legal and parallel rates.

Some advisers are recommending the government to recognize the unsubsidized dollar market, and to impose a special tax on the transactions made on that dollar. Unfortunately for the government, both this proposal and maintaining the current policy lead to unwanted consequences:

On the one hand, giving official recognition to the parallel exchange rate would automatically trigger the movement of hundreds of millions of bolivars towards that market, because people would be more confident in paying a price that was legitimized by the government. As a result, the new demand would greatly increase the dollar's value against the Venezuelan currency, which would elevate prices in a country dependent on imports.

But on the other hand, maintaining the fiction of the VEB/USD at 2.15 means continuing to spend billions to subsidize the currency, which is more difficult now that the Venezuelan government's budget is more strained. Besides keeping other problems generated by the current policy, such as frauds, inefficiency, delays and shortage.

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The post-financial crisis: The dollar's status

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

With the financial crisis that began in the U.S. in 2008, the debate about "the dollar's status" in the present and future world has gained intensity.

For example, for important figures such as Joseph Stiglitz the U.S. currency is losing its status. He says its role as a conservative asset is questionable and cannot remain the pillar of the global reserve system. For the Nobel Prize-winner, the dollar has a high degree of risk because of the huge fiscal deficit and the debt burden on the U.S. government.

However, while Stiglitz's remarks are well founded, and it is true that the falling value of the dollar over the last decade may persist, in our view it will continue maintaining a major role.

We believe this based on the fact that the U.S. remains the planet's most important economy in every way, about 70% of the world's currency reserves are denominated in dollars, and at least 7 out of 10 transactions in the globe are made in that currency. Moreover, the U.S. Government's deficit and debt are realities as old that are part of the North American history.

Therefore, the dollar's role as leading currency is not over, although in the future it will no longer monopolize the global reserve system, seeing that other currencies will also ensure stability. Nevertheless this scenario will not mean the end of the U.S. currency as a store of value, but the consolidation of development in other parts of the Earth.

A multipolar world is approaching and will be reflected in a multi-currency reserve system, though still led by the dollar.

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