Did Chavez reduce poverty with hyperinflation and unemployment?

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

On last Sunday, President Hugo Chavez said his government has reduced poverty by half and that within 10 years there will be no poor in Venezuela. But considering inflation and employment, two of the most important indicators for measuring poverty in a country, we realize that the president's statement is wrong.

During the 10 years of Chavez government, inflation has remained on average above 20% annually. It means that every five years of Chavismo the cost of living has risen by 100%. Reality that every day generates more misery, and makes it harder for the Venezuelan poor to improve their status.

Parallel to the above, the anti-private sector policy of the regime has led to the closure of thousands of Venezuelan companies due to lack of clear legal conditions, arbitrary expropriation and government tax terrorism. In that sense, this anti-business plan of Chavez has helped create more poverty because it have reduced employment opportunities for employers and employees.

Therefore, the failure of Chavismo to control inflation, in addition to the government's guideline against corporations-employment, are facts inconsistent with the statement made by Chavez of having reduced poverty in ten years.

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The post-financial crisis: Defiant global unemployment

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Although the elements that announce the end of the recession 2008-2009 are increasing, one of the factors that still threatens the economy is the worldwide unemployment.

Since the financial meltdown began, just in the U.S. and EU unemployment rates have doubled; thus, now the figures reflect that about 15 million Americans and 25 million Euro-Citizens are unemployed. What implies that currently there are more people not earning income than three years ago.

However, those are numbers from the first world, so we can try to imagine how the job market is in the rest of the planet. Studies of the World Labor Organization indicate that 240 million people are unemployed worldwide.

All this leads to a state that threatens the post-crisis phase of the actual recession. As these millions of unemployed face a situation that prevents them from affording their basic necessities, and that impede companies from recovering the volume of sales/production made before the globe's current crisis.

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The post-financial crisis: Oil with less risk?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In theory, oil prices should be back to higher levels with the recovery of the global economy, as happened after the US recession of 2001 and 2002. Nonetheless, in the world of post-financial crisis exists, for now, a political environment that could lead to different consequences in the energy market.

Oil prices hit their highest levels during the years 2003 to 2007, coinciding with a very peculiar international scenario: The war to invade Iraq was initiated and this became an absolutely unstable country, Venezuela was suffering a serious political turmoil, Correa and Morales (left-wing extremists) began their presidencies in Ecuador and Bolivia respectively, and Israel launched a severe military attack on Lebanon with unpredictable repercussions. Facts that directly involved important oil-producing regions, so it could be presumed that they contributed to the sharp upward movement in prices.

In contrast, today the international scene is less volatile in the oil-exporting centers, although this does not mean that instability will never resurface. But while this climate of reduced risk remains unchanged, oil prices might not react to economic recovery in the same way as they did during the boom period 2003-2007.

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Elections in Honduras can be credible

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

According to Ban Ki-Moon, UN secretary general, in Honduras there are no conditions for holding credible elections that lead to peace and security. Nonetheless, we think that in this country the citizen's vote is a viable alternative, despite the obstacles that threaten it.

Comparatively, in other conflicts where elections have been proposed to overcome the difficulties, they have had good results, and have been conducted in even worse circumstances than those of Honduras. There have for example the case of the electoral process that pacified Nicaragua in 1990, or the plebiscite that ended Pinochet's dictatorship.

And if the concern is the elections' transparency, the Honduras government can be pressed to improve the international observation, or the UN can suggest mechanisms to increase citizen oversight of the electoral process. But the problem is that the UN does not address the issue, but merely consider Zelaya's return to power as the only option.

In short, the Honduran election can be credible and may represent a long-term solution, because as we have said, the challenges are surmountable. In other regions of the world multilateral agencies encourage conflict resolution through elections; however, we do not understand why in the case of Honduras the world is denied that citizens decide their future by voting.

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The post-financial crisis: Dependence on the dollar

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

About the dollar's status in the scenario of the post-financial crisis, another factor that would side with the U.S. currency would be the still strong dependence of the global economy on the Yankees.

The United States remains the main consumer of goods and services on the planet. The exporting powers -China, Japan, Germany- as well as the most oil-producing countries and suppliers of raw materials, base much of their economies on exports to the United States.

Also, the United States remains the largest recipient of savings and investments in the world. From central banks to Arab oil tycoons, who has wealth generally has a significant part of it in dollars -whether in savings, paper stock, or real estate-

According to these realities, a violent depreciation of the Yankee currency would hurt the earnings of those who receive dollars as payment, and would cause losses in those with assets valued in that currency. Two unpleasant effects that would impact primarily on governments.

Consequently, while the global economy maintains a strong dependence on the U.S. currency, the whole world will be interested in a dollar that retains a relatively stable value. And in economics, convenience is often more decisive than the supply and demand.

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Zelaya returns to Honduras to prevent elections

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Given the fact that in Honduras there will be elections in November to elect a new president, Manuel Zelaya rushed back to Honduran territory. An action that has the task of trying to disrupt the upcoming elections because it doesn't suit him from any point of view.

If the November vote occurs, the elected president will be an authority that will have the recognition of most of the people and all Honduran institutions. Situation that would leave Zelaya trying to overthrow a president who entirely meets the constitutional requirements to hold office.

Moreover, according to opinion polls, the political organizations that support Zelaya in Honduras have no chance of claiming victory in the upcoming elections. This implies that electoral competition is not a realistic strategy for Zelaya's followers to regain control of the country.

Then, Zelaya knows that his cause will be lost if the elections are conducted. His presence will seek to add street protests to the international community's pressure, in order to prevent Hondurans from voting.

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What did the Juanes concert in Cuba symbolize?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

For the hard-line Latin American democratic thought, the Juanes presentation in Cuba was interpreted as a betrayal, because it saw the show as a vote of recognition to the regime. However, this event could be read from another perspective:

Juanes, Miguel Bose and Olga Tañon are one of the most important representatives of the entertainment capitalism in Latin America and Spain. What these artists symbolize is globalization, current trends, status, individuality, consumerism, freedom, and values very different from those that once were promoted by the Cuban government.

In Fidel's Cuba, characterized by backwardness, repression, intolerance and isolation, it would have been unthinkable a show featuring open societies icons.

But by mutual agreement, the government of Cuba and the singers installed platforms at the emblematic Revolution Square, as if to demonstrate to Cubans the other world that exists outside of socialist oppression.

So the Juanes concert in Havana represents something never seen during the Fidel era: Cuba opening up to international culture. Symbols of change that undermine the foundations of the undemocratic regime built by Fidel Castro.

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