Chile: Leftist indignation after 20 years?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The left ruled in Chile for 20 consecutive years. During this period, the only time of great political instability occurred at the beginning of the government of Michelle Bachelet, in 2006, when strong student protests demanded improvements in public education, but the issue was quickly resolved. After that, streets returned to be quiet, the years went by and nobody seems to have noticed any problems with the educational system, as Bachelet leaves the presidency with almost 80% of popularity.

In 2010, a right-wing government comes to power, and in less than two years, the Chilean left begin to remember things they had forgotten for two decades.

In 20 years, the Chilean Concertación coalition had the power, resources and time to completely reform secondary and university education, do they forget that education could be free, and that private universities need better regulations?

We believe the government should provide free education at all levels, as has been proposed by the protesters in Chile; however, we do not share with them the idea of prohibiting profits from schools, universities or educational institutions of any kind. Removing the private sector from the educational system will only produce a third-world education, such as Cuba, or the other countries that have tested this model (without international recognition and Nobel prizes). And we also do not agree with breaking the democratic rules every time an ideology different from the left comes to power in Latin America. There are other ways to demand changes without promoting looting and violence, as when Lagos and Bachelet ruled Chile.

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Polls for Nicaragua's presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The upcoming November 6 there will be general election in Nicaragua to choose the president and parliament, event in which the main Central American ally of the ALBA, Daniel Ortega, will seek re-election despite the fact that none of the 202 articles of the Constitution of that country states that a president may be reelected.

Although the incumbent president's desire to be reelected is not permitted by the laws, but by an unfounded interpretation made ​​by the Nicaraguan judiciary, the data produced by recent opinion surveys indicate that the favorite to succeed in these elections is Daniel Ortega, with 44% of voting intentions. He is followed by the opponents Fabio Gadea Mantilla, with 32%, and Arnoldo Alemán, with 13% . These figures come from the study conducted by Gallup in September this year.

Note that the opposition to Ortega's government could capitalize about 45% of the voting intention if it were not divided, which technically would tie the contest, however, has not yet been announced any alliance between these factions. Maybe they need to withstand 13 years of XXI Century Socialism, as Venezuelans, so that these parties understand that they themselves have no chance against the Neocastrista movement of Latin America.

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How Chavez would return after "cancer"

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

After his failure in the violent 1992 coup, Hugo Chavez changed his strategy, he put on a mask, speaking of democracy, quoting Rousseau, Montesquieu, and criticizing the Cuban dictatorship to gain the trust of millions, but in 1999, after winning the presidency, Chavez began a campaign of discrimination, hatred and political fanaticism to prepare the ground for his autocratic project. It was the first time Chavez got into serious trouble being an extremist, was saved by pretending to be an innocent victim, and then returned to his original path. The mutation demon-angel-demon proved successful to fool Venezuelans.

With four years in office, the radicalism of Chavez's project caused a political crisis in 2002, triggering the confusing events of April 11. Chavez was removed from power for two days, then he was returned by the military. Chavez was almost crying on national television, taking out a crucifix, apologizing, and calling for the reconciliation of the divided Venezuela; winning time and preparing the resumption of the path of intolerance. The sequence demon-angel-demon gave good results again for the Chavista revolution.

Time passes in Venezuela under increasingly extremist speeches and actions of the government. Chavez himself encouraged his followers to radicalize "the process", but El Comandante is allegedly ill in 2011, it's time to be an angel again, and recover the popularity lost due to so many conflicts and few solutions. Newly, we see him about to cry on national television talking about his cancer, to appear, a week after, doing physical exercises and predicting his return. And what return?, one where it would be less hate?, where electricity rationing would be over and fanaticism would be put aside to make room for the national welfare? It is almost impossible to imagine a return of Chavez without more of the same, whether he was coming back from prison, a failed coup or an alleged disease.

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The "cancer" as a Chavista strategy for 2012

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Chavez brings a set of electoral strategies to address the 2012 presidential election. Of these, the hypothetical "cancer", briefly defeated by the Lieutenant Colonel, leads the repertoire displayed by the Venezuelan government, dish served with several adjustments to the worn image of the Bolivarian Revolution leader.

Unlike most analysts and journalists, we have never believed that President Chavez suffers from a cancer, as we settled in other publications and interviews, and we will hold this position unless a Venezuelan medical board, not politicized, certifies otherwise. It will not convince us to see the president affected (hairless) by a supposed chemotherapy treatment, or ingesting pills on television, or looking gaunt and losing weight, because that may be part of the show; in fact, it is known the use of this kind of illusions in the entertainment industry. Again, we will just believe in the objective evaluation of a Venezuelan medical board, not politicized.

In our view, those who have decided to believe the government's version are relying at the fourth official truth given regarding the disappearance of the Venezuelan president weeks ago. We still suspect that the whole subject of Chavez's cancer is a big electoral ploy in order to soften his image and help him focus all his public appearances in this matter, rather than face the main problems of the country, like housing, insecurity and corruption.

It is much easier for Chavez to appear on TV talking about the chemotherapy, and his miraculous recovery, than of the Venezuelan prison crisis or the failure of the government's policies. It is surprising how the president has had time to train with the military and give long speeches, but has not even had a few words to the families of the victims of the massacre inside El Rodeo. "It hurts here", "I will go to Cuba to continue my treatment. I let the vice-president in charge of this and that". These will be the positions of the Venezuelan Head of State before each situation that may affect his popularity in the next year's elections.

President Chavez has also taken advantage of the confusion and turmoil caused by his alleged cancer to reformulate various aspects of the government propaganda that have great reluctance in the population. The slogan of the Chavez administration will no longer be "Fatherland, socialism or death", as it was for years; now it will be "Independence and Socialist Fatherland! We will live and overcome!". Similarly, the excessive presence of the red color and the word "socialist" will be lessened, following the Chavez's orders, and the regime has shown mercy with some ailing political prisoners. In our view, these movements have nothing to do with Chavez' fear of death because of the cancer, as has been believed. They are strategies that aim to separate the Chavista government from extremist or negative messages.

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Polls for Argentina's presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Argentines will go to elections on 23 October, in a process that would be two rounds unless one of these conditions are met: 1) a candidate obtains 45% of the vote in the first round, or 2) a candidate obtains 40% of the vote with at least a 10% margin over the second place candidate.

According to the latest survey, conducted by Nueva Comunicación in mid-June, President Cristina Fernandez leads the voting intentions with 34.3%; followed by Ricardo Alfonsin with 16.7%; Eduardo Duhalde with 12.3%; Hermes Binner with 8%; Elisa Carrio with 8%; and Alberto Rodriguez Saá with 7.7%. In the study, respondents who answered "other" accounted for 3.7% of the sample, while those who do not know yet reached 7.4%, for a margin of error of 4.08%.

Assuming these results, the first thing that stands out is that President Fernandez would have high chances of being victorious in the first round, despite her hard line against the independent press and farmers, the corruption scandals, and the high levels of inflation that the country has suffered since her arrival to the presidency.

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Chavez has cancer! Is it showtime?

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Chavez's disappearance is a mystery. Speculations fly: he has cancer, he's dead, he is wounded, he is planning something with Fidel, a medical source said this, a newspaper in Miami said that, Nelson Bocaranda said such a thing in his "runrunes", etc., keeping the Venezuelan people and the world in a state of suspense. Something strange happens, there's no doubt, however, we could be looking another of Chavez's circus acts.

The dramatic removal of a key figure of the plot, and its return after a while, is nothing new, it has been part of Hollywood scripts since the early days of cinema. It is one of those tricks that entertainment producers use to refresh the stories and raise the public's interest.

Snow White was poisoned by an evil witch and then resurrected by the kiss of a prince; in Superman, Lois Lane dies and is brought back to life by the "man of steel" when he makes the time go back; in Pirates of the Caribbean, Captain Jack Sparrow is eaten by a mythical monster, and returned from the dead through the superhuman efforts of his crew; in The Lord of the Rings, Gandalf falls into an abyss during a fight with a demon and is given up for dead, returning later as a most powerful wizard; in the Twilight series, Edward Cullen decides to say goodbye to his beloved (and to the audience) for her protection, provoking suspense, to then return and continue the vampire story; and there are still many more examples...

But why would Chavez resort to such trickery? The Venezuelan president has already twelve years in power, without having concrete answers to the problems of insecurity, housing scarcity and food supply of Venezuelans. Perhaps "El Comandante" could be hoping to use this as an excuse for the lack of results of his recently announced Mission House (Misión Vivienda), which would have to have thousands of houses built until this date, or maybe he is trying to alleviate a bit of the tension that Venezuelans have been experiencing for years due to his authoritarian style of government, softening his image before the 2012 presidential elections by arousing feelings of compassion and longing.

We can't forget that Chavez's leadership is still based more on his charisma and media skills than in his ability to repress dissent. Before being a strong man, Chavez is a charming entertainer. For now, Chavistas can organize religious ceremonies to pray for Chavez's health, share alleged intelligence reports with the press or give speeches calling for an armed revolution, as Chavez's brother did recently, but if you ask us, all the mystery that has been created with the "disappearance" of the current Venezuelan president seems more an electoral circus than anything else.

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"La Gran Recesión y la Izquierda" on Amazon.com

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

You can now buy our book "La Gran Recesión y la Izquierda" on Amazon.com, the leading bookstore in the cyberspace, and one of the largest in the world. You can make the purchase through this site and this company will send a copy of our book to virtually anywhere in the world, usually without customs or import taxes. Once you complete the transaction, you will get the book in about five days if you live in Latin America, less than half that time if you live in the U.S., and if you are located elsewhere, Amazon.com will tell you the approximate time of your order delivery.

By clicking on the image above you will be transferred directly to the page of "La Gran Recesión y la Izquierda" on Amazon.com, there, in addition to the purchase, you can browse images and details of the book.