Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net
Venezuelans will elect a new National Assembly on September 26, 2010. In these elections, the first opinion surveys indicate that the race will be interesting.
According to Consultores 21, if parliamentary elections take place at this moment, the opposition candidates would count with 52% of the vote, which would give them control of the assembly. However, IVAD estimates that if the elections were held now, the chavism would get 32.6% of the votes, the opposition 20.8% and 33.1% would favor independent candidates. Hinterlaces, on the other hand, shows that the government has 28% of voting intention, the opposition 26% and 34% of the electorate has no partisan bias.
That is, in the independent sector of the population is the factor that will decide who wins the legislative election in Venezuela. On this, we must say that these voters has leaned towards the ruling party in the past, a trend that will be tested in the upcoming election because this year there are new variables that are detrimental to chavism. Among them we can cite the weak economy, the mega-devaluation and the national electricity crisis.
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