Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net
The shortage of basic commodities, the national electricity crisis, the out of control crime, the long socialist recession, the endless corruption scandals, the Cuban colonization of Venezuela, the inflation of 30%, the attacks on private property and the eleven consecutive years in power are the main factors leading to the Chavez's current low approval ratings -close to 40%-.
Unfortunately, popularity and votes are not always the same, much less in a country governed with anti-democratic schemes such as Venezuela. When dealing with any election, chavismo relies on unfair practices that tarnish the image of the procedure, as the abuse of public institutions, the use of public resources to finance the PSUV's campaign, intimidation and voting processes that leave much to be desired due to their questionable transparency. Tricks that distort any electoral event and we think increase in more than 10% the real votes of Chavez's party. So we do not believe that chavismo will lose the majority of the National Assembly in September.
But although we do not expect a change of command in the Venezuelan Congress, we do believe that the reasons set forth above have adversely affected Chavez, so it seems very likely a change in the percentage of votes the parties would get. This should be the second hardest election Chavez had faced so far and it is probable that he will obtain the second lowest percentage of votes for his political project since 1999.
To put it in numbers, chavistas should obtain a 53% of the total votes counted, a figure that, in spite of giving them a majority in Parliament, would mean a substantial weakening of Chavez's electoral power.
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