Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net
Juan Manuel Santos and Hugo Chavez are divided by ideology. The first is a democrat, the second a radical socialist.
They are divided by the FARC, because Santos is opposed to them, while Chavez has a very complacent attitude towards the socialist guerrillas. In this matter, by the way, they are also divided by the issue of the U.S. military in Colombia.
They are divided by the recent diplomatic tensions, which have caused the chronic stagnation that the two countries have been accepting as a habit.
They are divided by Brazil, because this has been one of the big winners of the fight between Chavez and Uribe. Venezuela now buys from Brazil what it previously imported from Colombia.
And they are also divided by Cuba, since trade between the Castro dictatorship and Colombia is relatively insignificant, which should be of paramount importance to explain the attitude of Chavez. Besides that Cuba does not share the Colombian government's interest of fighting terrorism.
For all this, although some people think that Santos and Chavez will suddenly be moved by a cold pragmatism, it seems very difficult for these presidents to improve the Colombian-Venezuelan relations to a level of warmth and understanding. They may have short-term goals, or statements that will try to dissolve the tension, but eventually, the elements described here should take things in another direction. Even we think Chavez will not lift his embargo against Colombia, he didn't during the worst of the Venezuelan electricity crisis, in spite that Colombians had the enough energy to mitigate the devastating shortages in Venezuela, then, why would he do it now?
Trade war and strong diplomatic tensions are the most likely scenario when the governments of Chavez and Santos begin to interact.
Related articles:
No comments:
Post a Comment
Warning: Comments are fully moderated. If you use language that is vulgar or inappropriate, your comment will not be published.