Ecuador's government, the most fragile of South America

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The closing of radio Arutam and Teleamazonas by Rafael Correa's administration are not chance events, behind this onslaught against the media is the face of a weakened government.

Although Correa has not done so badly in the economic sphere, his lack of social outcomes, his authoritarian style, his ties to Colombian guerrillas and his alliance with Hugo Chavez, have been the variables that have weighed in on the deterioration of his image before the people of Ecuador. So that, only from September to November 2009, Correa's popularity has fallen from 49% to 42%.

That is why Correa attacks the media, he is blaming this sector for his loss of legitimacy. Similarly, there is the reason of the donation of Mirage fighter jets from Venezuela to Ecuador, it seems an attempt to appease the Ecuadorian military class and to prevent a situation like the coup against Zelaya in Honduras. The ALBA leaders know that the country's military can react against Correa if he continues to fall in popularity and copying Chavez's policies.

Based on the above -plus the tensions with Colombia and the growing conflict with the indigenous sector- of all South American governments, Ecuador has the biggest political risk.

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Chile invited to join OECD earlier than Venezuela

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

While some governments in Latin America are threatening to abandon the OAS, the UN and any multilateral organization not willing to support the anti-democratic ideas of the radical left in the region, Chile has just recently joined the OECD -the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development- which is integrated by a group of countries considered the world's most developed.

It is interesting that Chile has done this earlier than Venezuela, considering that Chavez's country has a much larger GDP -The Venezuelan economy doubles in size to that of Chile-. But for the OECD it's not only important to have a big economy, it's also essential to have strong democratic institutions, independent central banks, a robust private sector, an advanced legal system, a stable economy and the willingness to implement joint policies; variables that Venezuela has deteriorated over the past ten years with the government of President Chavez.

The two political models being debated now in Latin America: Chavez's extremist style, or the moderate way, like Chile. This last is doing better, say the world's most developed countries.

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On the Mexican strategy of hedging oil prices

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

It is a fact that the budgets of oil-exporting countries are subject to the vagaries of international prices of this product; however, nations like Mexico are betting on a new way to protect them against sudden drops in the price of crude oil: Financial hedging instruments.

Because 40% of the Mexican government's revenue depends on oil exports, President Calderon's administration took a short position in the financial markets equal to a number of oil barrels which amounts to 20-30% of exports. So if oil prices fall, the profits of this operation will go up. And if the price rises, the amount of money coming into Mexico for traditional exports of crude will be still greater, although the losses from the short position in the oil derivatives markets.

But our argument against using such strategies is that the government always have to keep large amounts of money trading against the export product, funds that could well be used for other productive sectors in order to diversify the nation's dependence on the oil industry. For example, instead of resorting to the above described strategy, the Mexican government could put these millions of dollars in programs that support domestic industry, thereby promoting a more developed and less dependent country.

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Criticism of Chavez's military strategy: Destruction of the national productive sector

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

According to figures from CONINDUSTRIA, when Chavez became president in 1999, there were over 12 thousand factories operating in Venezuela. However, due to the Chavez's anti-private sector policies, Venezuela has today less than 2 thousand operating factories. Not to mention that many manufacturing plants that were nationalized by Chavez are abandoned, or work with great inefficiency.

This weakened national production means that Venezuela is actually a country more dependent on imports -80% of products consumed in Chavez's Venezuela are imported-. A reality that raises the vulnerability of Venezuela in war situations, because in such scenarios the import-related infrastructure -roads, customs, ports, airports and warehouses- tends to operate with great difficulty, be blocked or destroyed.

Moreover, although from an economic perspective imported products could be less costly; from a logistical standpoint, mobilizing domestic goods is an easier task, and their repositioning time is usually less. Furthermore, no one knows what posture will adopt the usual suppliers of Venezuela if a military confrontation erupts.

This is why, in war, the foe's industrial systems are often selected as strategic targets to be disabled. But in the case of Venezuela, thanks to Chavez, the hypothetical enemies of this country have much of the work done.

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Polls for Chile's presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

On December 13, there will be held the first round of elections to choose who will become the next president of Chile. An election where Sebastian Piñera apparently has a comfortable lead.

This is reflected in the latest survey, conducted by Universidad del Desarrollo, in which appears Sebastián Piñera with 38% of Chileans' voting intention. He is followed by Eduardo Frei with 23% and Marco Enriquez-Ominami with 20%. This study was made on November 18 and has a margin of error of 3.2%.

Assuming these results, it would mean that Chile will be another place lost by the leftist movement in Latin America -independently of how radical or moderate they are-. Something that would be very positive for democracy in the region because, lamentably, many centrist leftist leaders have served to support the extremist project that promote Hugo Chávez and his allies in the area. For an example, we can consider how the presidency of Lula in Brazil, or the Insulza's role in the OAS, have always been backing the abuses of Chavez against Venezuela's democracy.

Update -december, 16- Polls for the second round election: Piñera 49%, Frei 32%. Margin of error 3%. Source: CERC.

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Criticism of Chavez's military strategy: National fragmentation

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

No war expert has ever proposed to divide a country to strengthen it, quite the contrary. However, since Chavez came to power in Venezuela, one of his main objectives has been to strictly separate Venezuelans, working to ensure that the population remains divided into two halves that hate each other to death.

Thanks to Chavez, Venezuela is now a fragmented country, protected by an armed force which is no stranger to this national reality, and is therefore also a victim of the chavismo-opposition fight.

Chavez says that one of his intentions is to protect Venezuela from foreign interests, but beyond words, Venezuela is more militarily vulnerable today than in the past, due to the sharp national polarization Chavez has incited among Venezuelans.

Because of the hatred sown by the chavista revolution, with great difficulty an opponent of the current government would go into battle to defend the president, the same who daily takes ruthless measures to destroy the Venezuelans that question him. But also no chavista would be comfortable fighting alongside its hated political opponents.

Defending a country is not simply a matter of spending billions on weapons. A good military strategy does not neglect a key political aspect as national unity.

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Polls for Bolivia's presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Next December 6, Bolivians will go to general elections in order to elect president and parliament. In this election, according to Bolivia's new constitution, the current president may seek re-election. Something that seems quite possible considering the latest opinion poll.

We refer to the survey conducted by Unitel, which puts Evo Morales with 52% of the voting intentions, while his nearest rival -Manfred Reyes Villa- barely reaches 22%. Then follows Samuel Doria Medina with 10% of the electorate. This study was done from October 29 to November 6, and has a margin of error of 2.4%.

However, while Evo Morales will surely be reelected, two factors that stain his administration are his authoritarian style and his closeness to Hugo Chavez. What has led, for example, to handle erroneously the disagreement with his opponents, and has questioned the sovereign status of his government. Errors that will hurt him in the near future unless they are amended.

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Others consume more electricity than Venezuela, without blackouts

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Leaving out what they say about the phenomenon of El Niño, there are two excuses used by Chavistas to justify the current electricity crisis in Venezuela: that our country is now so prosperous that consumes much electricity, and that Venezuelans are wasteful.

However, if we look at the data -IEA figures- of world power consumption, we will realize the unreality of these Chavez's theories.

Venezuela consumes about 84 billion kwh per year, but the U.S. demands almost 4 trillion kwh per year -46 times more than Venezuela- without US citizens living plagued by recurrent and unexpected blackouts, as the ones provoked by the Chavez administration.

Furthermore, the European Union consumes about 3 trillion kWh per year -34 times more than Venezuela- without Europeans needing to support a strict rationing of electricity, as the one that is in place today in Venezuela.

And even in Latin America, a country like Brazil consumes 402 billion kwh per year -4.8 times more than Venezuela- again without Brazilians having to endure daily interruptions of electric service, as happens in Chavez's Venezuela.

So, it is illogical to claim that the factors causing the electricity crisis in Venezuela are over-consumption and waste, since, as we have seen, others require much more electricity than Venezuela without going into crisis.

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Poll: A majority in favor of the Colombia-US military agreement

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

During October 2009, we made the following question to the visitors of our Spanish website Morochos.org:

Your opinion about the agreement that allows the U.S. military to use Colombian bases is:

We gave two options and each received the following percentage of votes...

1) In favor, 57%

2) Against, 43%

Observations:

While this agreement is opposed by several governments in Latin America, the persistent problem of the FARC, and the support that Chavez gives to the socialist guerrillas, could be causing a kindly view of the United States' military presence in the area.

Apparently, this accord is being perceived in some circles as a way to combat guerrillas and hamper the Chavez's plans in Colombia.

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Polls for Honduras' presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

A general election is scheduled, on 29 November, in order to give solution to the political crisis in Honduras. There, the main competitors are Porfirio Lobo Sosa -from the National Party- and Elvin Santos – from the Liberal Party-.

According to a Gallup poll made from 13 to 19 October, 37% of Hondurans favors Porfirio Lobo Sosa, 21% Elvin Santos, and 35% are undecided. Margin of error 2.8%.

It is striking that, according to this survey, the Liberal Party will be punished by the Honduran electorate. Something that is not surprising in the sense that: 1) a representative of that party, Manuel Zelaya, was the one who caused the political crisis by violating the Honduran constitution, and 2) Roberto Micheletti -also from the Liberal Party- was among the main protagonists in the coup against Zelaya.

So, we can just wait for election day to see if the 35% of undecided voters, that shows the survey, will choose one of the leading candidates or simply will not go to vote.

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The sucre and the exchange rate stability

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

One theme that emerges from the ALBA proposal to establish the sucre as a common currency, is the exchange rate stability.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the smallest economies are the most vulnerable to domestic and international events. In that sense, a common currency would be beneficial for the ALBA countries as it would be backed by a larger economy, which would allow the new monetary unit to better withstand the impact of the economic problems than the currency of a single nation could resist.

However, that's the theory, because a practical problem for the sucre is that the ALBA is composed of only nine members -of which Venezuela is the only with resources for such a project- and has failed to attract the interest of giants like Brazil and Mexico. This creates an obstacle because those who make up the Bolivarian Alternative for Latin America and the Caribbean are small economies with serious difficulties, that will have many setbacks when devoting resources to support a multinational exchange rate.

Therefore, until the leading nations of the region do not join the ALBA, it will threaten the goal of the sucre to provide exchange rate stability to the countries that adopt it.

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Some contradictions of the radical left in Latin America

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Anticapitalist, but Venezuela makes money from oil, Cuba from sugar, and the FARC from drugs. All preferably negotiated in US dollars, and at the highest price that the free market is able to pay.

Anti-imperialist, but a follower of a political model imported from the Soviet Union.

Atheist, but a fanatic believer who cannot tolerate those who do not share its socialist faith.

Enemy of the development models invented by foreigners, but none of the founders of socialism were born in Latin America.

Preacher of class equality, but the party leaders always occupy the highest positions of power and live in opulence.

Critic of the FMI's academic discourse, but Marx, Engels and Lenin were intellectuals who tried to justify their proposals in a scientific manner.

Critic of the Pinochet dictatorship, but an admirer of Castro's dictatorship.

Critic of the private media, but the governments of Cuba and Venezuela are owners of large media chains, where the objective journalism is replaced by the communist party's propaganda.

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Venezuelan legislative: Grassroots opinion about opposition's campaign

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In Venezuela, elections will take place in the middle of next year. Therefore, in order to investigate how the opposition supporters think the campaign should be guided, we did from 15 to 20 October a series of focus group sessions consisting of grassroots typical representatives, from popular-class, with an age range between 21 and 45. Following is a summary of these sessions.

The focus group participants:

1) Have preference for the primaries as a method for choosing candidates to represent them in legislative elections of 2010. They believe that this system is more democratic, participatory and inclusive.

• "The primaries are the most democratic method for unity”.

• "Enough of the clique and arbitrary selections. I want primaries”.

2) Although they prefer primaries over other methods for choosing the candidates, they believe that unity is a higher goal. That is to say, going to the elections together is more important than whether the opposition candidate is elected by primaries or consensus. In fact, they know that the primaries are not a guarantee of unity.

• "Unity by consensus, primaries or polls ... but unity."

• "Remember that Emilio Grateron won in Chacao in primaries, but Liliana and Muchacho, among others, continued in the ring".

3) They think that the opposition campaign must go beyond a unity candidate. They also want the opposition to propose a legislative agenda that focuses on solving the problems of Venezuelans.

• "In the slums, people do not care if the candidate was elected in primaries or consensus, what they concern is unemployment and crime”.

• "Unity, consensus, primaries, and the draft laws? Where is the legislative agenda?”.

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Cuban oil dependency: Venezuela's importance

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In another article we show that Venezuela is not a vital oil supplier to the U.S. economy. But if we want to know about a country truly in need of Venezuela's energy resources, we must direct our gaze toward Cuba.

To function, the weak Cuban economy must import about 120 000 barrels of crude daily, according to IEA. But fortunately for the Cuban government, since Chavez is in power, Venezuela sends to the communist island -under very favorable conditions for Cuba- an approximate of 100 000 barrels of oil per day. What represents 83% of the Castro regime's imported oil requirements.

Cuba is supposed to pay for this oil through a confusing barter that goes something like this: Venezuela exports the oil, in return Cuba sends physicians, then, Venezuela must pay to Cuba a salary in dollars for each Cuban doctor. And what Cuba calls for each physician is so high that in the end Venezuela owes money, without Cuba having to spend a single dollar.

Thus, given the high percentage of Cuban oil demand supplied by Venezuela, and the unusual conditions under which Cuba acquires Venezuelan oil, it makes more sense to talk about energy dependence in the Venezuela-Cuba relationship than in the case of Venezuela-USA.

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Radical leftists more affected than the moderates in Latin America

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The global economic problems have caused declines in the popularity of many leaders in Latin America. But when comparing only the recent surveys of countries led by the left, we note that the extremist governments of this trend are being evaluated in a much more negative way than the moderates, with the exception of Evo Morales in Bolivia.

In Venezuela, according to IVAD, 64.2% of citizens think that Chavez should not continue in power beyond 2012.

In Ecuador, according to Gallup, Correa's popularity has fallen to 49%. His lowest since he took office.

In Nicaragua, according to the research firm M&R Consultants, 62.4% of the population thinks that Daniel Ortega is heading down the wrong track.

And we can also mention the case of Mel Zelaya in Honduras, who three months ago caused a political crisis just as he intended to follow Chavez's extremism.

In contrast, several moderate leftist leaders are doing just fine; as are the cases of Lula in Brazil, Bachelet in Chile, Vazquez in Uruguay, and Funes in El Salvador. Presidents who maintain high levels of public approval -all above 60% - despite the international economic difficulties.

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Venezuelan medicine leads Cuban in recognition

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Under the Chavez government, the replacement of Venezuelan doctors by Cuban physicians is increasingly. A substitution based on the Castrist propaganda praising the Communist health care system, but that does not take into account the higher international recognition of the Venezuelan health science over the Cuban.

Just remember that Cuba has no Nobel prizes, while an immunologist and geneticist of Venezuela -Dr. Baruch Benacerraf- received the Nobel Prize of Medicine in 1980. Equally, Dr. Convit, also Venezuelan, developed an effective vaccine against leprosy that won him the medal "Health for All" of the Pan American Health Organization, the Prince of Asturias Prize, and being nominated for the Nobel Prize of medicine in 1988.

At another point, Cuba's ability to produce quality drugs is questioned by many international experts as Enrique Soto, head of Molecular Virology in the National Institute of Medical Sciences of Mexico. However, it doesn't happen with medications developed by Venezuelan specialists.

Furthermore, we cannot ignore that every Venezuelan beauty queen crowned by the world is also a success for the Venezuelan aesthetic medicine. A medical area where Venezuela leads Cuba widely.

In conclusion, supplanting the professionalism of Venezuela's doctors with that of Cuba, is to ignore the superior prestige of the Venezuelan physicians over the Cubans.

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Venezuelan oil myth: The vital supplier

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

For decades, Venezuela has been shaping an energy ideology based on the assumption that Venezuelan oil is a strategic resource for the stability of the global economy. A notion that has been taken to extremes during the presidency of Hugo Chavez.

However, with a few simple calculations, we can demonstrate the error of those who believe that without Venezuelan oil the system would collapse.

According to the most optimistic estimates, Venezuela exports about 2 million barrels of oil a day, but the world consumes, according to OPEC, 83 million bpd. From which it follows that Venezuela covers only 2.4% of world oil demand.

And if we talk only about the United States, Venezuela's oil exports to that country reach approximately one million b/d. That is to say 4.8% of the 20.7 million barrels consumed daily by the US.

So, where is the relentless dependency of which Venezuelan politicians speak of? if statistically, Venezuela's energy exports are so small that the global economy, and the United States, could continue to function perfectly even if it received no Venezuelan oil.

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Did Chavez reduce poverty with hyperinflation and unemployment?

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

On last Sunday, President Hugo Chavez said his government has reduced poverty by half and that within 10 years there will be no poor in Venezuela. But considering inflation and employment, two of the most important indicators for measuring poverty in a country, we realize that the president's statement is wrong.

During the 10 years of Chavez government, inflation has remained on average above 20% annually. It means that every five years of Chavismo the cost of living has risen by 100%. Reality that every day generates more misery, and makes it harder for the Venezuelan poor to improve their status.

Parallel to the above, the anti-private sector policy of the regime has led to the closure of thousands of Venezuelan companies due to lack of clear legal conditions, arbitrary expropriation and government tax terrorism. In that sense, this anti-business plan of Chavez has helped create more poverty because it have reduced employment opportunities for employers and employees.

Therefore, the failure of Chavismo to control inflation, in addition to the government's guideline against corporations-employment, are facts inconsistent with the statement made by Chavez of having reduced poverty in ten years.

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The post-financial crisis: Defiant global unemployment

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Although the elements that announce the end of the recession 2008-2009 are increasing, one of the factors that still threatens the economy is the worldwide unemployment.

Since the financial meltdown began, just in the U.S. and EU unemployment rates have doubled; thus, now the figures reflect that about 15 million Americans and 25 million Euro-Citizens are unemployed. What implies that currently there are more people not earning income than three years ago.

However, those are numbers from the first world, so we can try to imagine how the job market is in the rest of the planet. Studies of the World Labor Organization indicate that 240 million people are unemployed worldwide.

All this leads to a state that threatens the post-crisis phase of the actual recession. As these millions of unemployed face a situation that prevents them from affording their basic necessities, and that impede companies from recovering the volume of sales/production made before the globe's current crisis.

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The post-financial crisis: Oil with less risk?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In theory, oil prices should be back to higher levels with the recovery of the global economy, as happened after the US recession of 2001 and 2002. Nonetheless, in the world of post-financial crisis exists, for now, a political environment that could lead to different consequences in the energy market.

Oil prices hit their highest levels during the years 2003 to 2007, coinciding with a very peculiar international scenario: The war to invade Iraq was initiated and this became an absolutely unstable country, Venezuela was suffering a serious political turmoil, Correa and Morales (left-wing extremists) began their presidencies in Ecuador and Bolivia respectively, and Israel launched a severe military attack on Lebanon with unpredictable repercussions. Facts that directly involved important oil-producing regions, so it could be presumed that they contributed to the sharp upward movement in prices.

In contrast, today the international scene is less volatile in the oil-exporting centers, although this does not mean that instability will never resurface. But while this climate of reduced risk remains unchanged, oil prices might not react to economic recovery in the same way as they did during the boom period 2003-2007.

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Elections in Honduras can be credible

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

According to Ban Ki-Moon, UN secretary general, in Honduras there are no conditions for holding credible elections that lead to peace and security. Nonetheless, we think that in this country the citizen's vote is a viable alternative, despite the obstacles that threaten it.

Comparatively, in other conflicts where elections have been proposed to overcome the difficulties, they have had good results, and have been conducted in even worse circumstances than those of Honduras. There have for example the case of the electoral process that pacified Nicaragua in 1990, or the plebiscite that ended Pinochet's dictatorship.

And if the concern is the elections' transparency, the Honduras government can be pressed to improve the international observation, or the UN can suggest mechanisms to increase citizen oversight of the electoral process. But the problem is that the UN does not address the issue, but merely consider Zelaya's return to power as the only option.

In short, the Honduran election can be credible and may represent a long-term solution, because as we have said, the challenges are surmountable. In other regions of the world multilateral agencies encourage conflict resolution through elections; however, we do not understand why in the case of Honduras the world is denied that citizens decide their future by voting.

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