Spain shifts to the right: Implications for Latin America

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Spain is one of the most influential nations in the Spanish-speaking America in every way (culture, politics, economics, fashion, etc..). Therefore, many of the things that happen in this country have implications for Latin American, and that the People's Party, the Spanish right, has won the parliamentary majority in the past elections is not going to be the exception. 

Among the most immediate impacts of this event for the region is that it denies the anti-capitalist propaganda of some local governments that indicates that the world's electorate is leaning to the left. 

On the other side is also the attitude that will set the new Spanish government toward the political systems of Cuba and Venezuela. Zapatero has always been criticized for being "complacent" with Chavez and Castro, and for using the lust for power of these rulers for the financial benefit of Spain, much like his "ideological cousin" Lula Da Silva. 

The government that will take office in Spain is one of the most conservative right in Europe. Rajoy and his party colleagues probably will not have the same goal of Zapatero to strengthen relationships with regimes that protect members of Spanish separatist groups, do not respect the property right, made flawed elections, and maintain large numbers of political prisoners and persecuted , which would endanger Spanish investment flows to the countries of the ALBA and Argentina, and would affect the political support given from Spain to many of the actions of these governments.

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The Copenhagen criteria and Latin America

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

One of the myths of the radical left in Latin America ensures that the model of State of politicians like Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro is the same that prevails in countries like Sweden, Denmark and Spain.

Ironically, in one of these societies that leftists in Latin America take as example of socialism, Denmark, the euro zone countries agreed to establish the general economic and political requirements to be met by any nation wishing to be part of the European Union.

According to "the Copenhagen criteria", politically, a country wishing to join the euro zone should be a democracy under the rule of law, that respects human rights and minorities. However, given that many of the citizens of Latin America still believes in the benefits of democracy despite the propaganda of the Cuban dictatorship, one of the most interesting aspects of "the Copenhagen criteria", if we relate it to Latin America, is what it says about the economic model.

In 1993, in Denmark, representatives of the European Union ruled that countries wishing to become members of this important group should be free market economies, with the ability to compete with the other forces of the Union.

Europe believes that the most appropriate political-economic configuration is the mix of democracy and free market; in contrast, the countries of the ALBA -Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Bolivia- propose autocratic schemes with socialized economies. Knowing who are on the best way is easy, but is hard to make Latin Americans inquire about the contradictions of the Cuban socialism, although none of them want to live in Havana, but in Madrid.

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Chile: Leftist indignation after 20 years?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The left ruled in Chile for 20 consecutive years. During this period, the only time of great political instability occurred at the beginning of the government of Michelle Bachelet, in 2006, when strong student protests demanded improvements in public education, but the issue was quickly resolved. After that, streets returned to be quiet, the years went by and nobody seems to have noticed any problems with the educational system, as Bachelet leaves the presidency with almost 80% of popularity.

In 2010, a right-wing government comes to power, and in less than two years, the Chilean left begin to remember things they had forgotten for two decades.

In 20 years, the Chilean Concertación coalition had the power, resources and time to completely reform secondary and university education, do they forget that education could be free, and that private universities need better regulations?

We believe the government should provide free education at all levels, as has been proposed by the protesters in Chile; however, we do not share with them the idea of prohibiting profits from schools, universities or educational institutions of any kind. Removing the private sector from the educational system will only produce a third-world education, such as Cuba, or the other countries that have tested this model (without international recognition and Nobel prizes). And we also do not agree with breaking the democratic rules every time an ideology different from the left comes to power in Latin America. There are other ways to demand changes without promoting looting and violence, as when Lagos and Bachelet ruled Chile.

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Polls for Nicaragua's presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The upcoming November 6 there will be general election in Nicaragua to choose the president and parliament, event in which the main Central American ally of the ALBA, Daniel Ortega, will seek re-election despite the fact that none of the 202 articles of the Constitution of that country states that a president may be reelected.

Although the incumbent president's desire to be reelected is not permitted by the laws, but by an unfounded interpretation made ​​by the Nicaraguan judiciary, the data produced by recent opinion surveys indicate that the favorite to succeed in these elections is Daniel Ortega, with 44% of voting intentions. He is followed by the opponents Fabio Gadea Mantilla, with 32%, and Arnoldo Alemán, with 13% . These figures come from the study conducted by Gallup in September this year.

Note that the opposition to Ortega's government could capitalize about 45% of the voting intention if it were not divided, which technically would tie the contest, however, has not yet been announced any alliance between these factions. Maybe they need to withstand 13 years of XXI Century Socialism, as Venezuelans, so that these parties understand that they themselves have no chance against the Neocastrista movement of Latin America.

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How Chavez would return after "cancer"

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

After his failure in the violent 1992 coup, Hugo Chavez changed his strategy, he put on a mask, speaking of democracy, quoting Rousseau, Montesquieu, and criticizing the Cuban dictatorship to gain the trust of millions, but in 1999, after winning the presidency, Chavez began a campaign of discrimination, hatred and political fanaticism to prepare the ground for his autocratic project. It was the first time Chavez got into serious trouble being an extremist, was saved by pretending to be an innocent victim, and then returned to his original path. The mutation demon-angel-demon proved successful to fool Venezuelans.

With four years in office, the radicalism of Chavez's project caused a political crisis in 2002, triggering the confusing events of April 11. Chavez was removed from power for two days, then he was returned by the military. Chavez was almost crying on national television, taking out a crucifix, apologizing, and calling for the reconciliation of the divided Venezuela; winning time and preparing the resumption of the path of intolerance. The sequence demon-angel-demon gave good results again for the Chavista revolution.

Time passes in Venezuela under increasingly extremist speeches and actions of the government. Chavez himself encouraged his followers to radicalize "the process", but El Comandante is allegedly ill in 2011, it's time to be an angel again, and recover the popularity lost due to so many conflicts and few solutions. Newly, we see him about to cry on national television talking about his cancer, to appear, a week after, doing physical exercises and predicting his return. And what return?, one where it would be less hate?, where electricity rationing would be over and fanaticism would be put aside to make room for the national welfare? It is almost impossible to imagine a return of Chavez without more of the same, whether he was coming back from prison, a failed coup or an alleged disease.

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The "cancer" as a Chavista strategy for 2012

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Chavez brings a set of electoral strategies to address the 2012 presidential election. Of these, the hypothetical "cancer", briefly defeated by the Lieutenant Colonel, leads the repertoire displayed by the Venezuelan government, dish served with several adjustments to the worn image of the Bolivarian Revolution leader.

Unlike most analysts and journalists, we have never believed that President Chavez suffers from a cancer, as we settled in other publications and interviews, and we will hold this position unless a Venezuelan medical board, not politicized, certifies otherwise. It will not convince us to see the president affected (hairless) by a supposed chemotherapy treatment, or ingesting pills on television, or looking gaunt and losing weight, because that may be part of the show; in fact, it is known the use of this kind of illusions in the entertainment industry. Again, we will just believe in the objective evaluation of a Venezuelan medical board, not politicized.

In our view, those who have decided to believe the government's version are relying at the fourth official truth given regarding the disappearance of the Venezuelan president weeks ago. We still suspect that the whole subject of Chavez's cancer is a big electoral ploy in order to soften his image and help him focus all his public appearances in this matter, rather than face the main problems of the country, like housing, insecurity and corruption.

It is much easier for Chavez to appear on TV talking about the chemotherapy, and his miraculous recovery, than of the Venezuelan prison crisis or the failure of the government's policies. It is surprising how the president has had time to train with the military and give long speeches, but has not even had a few words to the families of the victims of the massacre inside El Rodeo. "It hurts here", "I will go to Cuba to continue my treatment. I let the vice-president in charge of this and that". These will be the positions of the Venezuelan Head of State before each situation that may affect his popularity in the next year's elections.

President Chavez has also taken advantage of the confusion and turmoil caused by his alleged cancer to reformulate various aspects of the government propaganda that have great reluctance in the population. The slogan of the Chavez administration will no longer be "Fatherland, socialism or death", as it was for years; now it will be "Independence and Socialist Fatherland! We will live and overcome!". Similarly, the excessive presence of the red color and the word "socialist" will be lessened, following the Chavez's orders, and the regime has shown mercy with some ailing political prisoners. In our view, these movements have nothing to do with Chavez' fear of death because of the cancer, as has been believed. They are strategies that aim to separate the Chavista government from extremist or negative messages.

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Polls for Argentina's presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Argentines will go to elections on 23 October, in a process that would be two rounds unless one of these conditions are met: 1) a candidate obtains 45% of the vote in the first round, or 2) a candidate obtains 40% of the vote with at least a 10% margin over the second place candidate.

According to the latest survey, conducted by Nueva Comunicación in mid-June, President Cristina Fernandez leads the voting intentions with 34.3%; followed by Ricardo Alfonsin with 16.7%; Eduardo Duhalde with 12.3%; Hermes Binner with 8%; Elisa Carrio with 8%; and Alberto Rodriguez Saá with 7.7%. In the study, respondents who answered "other" accounted for 3.7% of the sample, while those who do not know yet reached 7.4%, for a margin of error of 4.08%.

Assuming these results, the first thing that stands out is that President Fernandez would have high chances of being victorious in the first round, despite her hard line against the independent press and farmers, the corruption scandals, and the high levels of inflation that the country has suffered since her arrival to the presidency.

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Chavez has cancer! Is it showtime?

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Chavez's disappearance is a mystery. Speculations fly: he has cancer, he's dead, he is wounded, he is planning something with Fidel, a medical source said this, a newspaper in Miami said that, Nelson Bocaranda said such a thing in his "runrunes", etc., keeping the Venezuelan people and the world in a state of suspense. Something strange happens, there's no doubt, however, we could be looking another of Chavez's circus acts.

The dramatic removal of a key figure of the plot, and its return after a while, is nothing new, it has been part of Hollywood scripts since the early days of cinema. It is one of those tricks that entertainment producers use to refresh the stories and raise the public's interest.

Snow White was poisoned by an evil witch and then resurrected by the kiss of a prince; in Superman, Lois Lane dies and is brought back to life by the "man of steel" when he makes the time go back; in Pirates of the Caribbean, Captain Jack Sparrow is eaten by a mythical monster, and returned from the dead through the superhuman efforts of his crew; in The Lord of the Rings, Gandalf falls into an abyss during a fight with a demon and is given up for dead, returning later as a most powerful wizard; in the Twilight series, Edward Cullen decides to say goodbye to his beloved (and to the audience) for her protection, provoking suspense, to then return and continue the vampire story; and there are still many more examples...

But why would Chavez resort to such trickery? The Venezuelan president has already twelve years in power, without having concrete answers to the problems of insecurity, housing scarcity and food supply of Venezuelans. Perhaps "El Comandante" could be hoping to use this as an excuse for the lack of results of his recently announced Mission House (Misión Vivienda), which would have to have thousands of houses built until this date, or maybe he is trying to alleviate a bit of the tension that Venezuelans have been experiencing for years due to his authoritarian style of government, softening his image before the 2012 presidential elections by arousing feelings of compassion and longing.

We can't forget that Chavez's leadership is still based more on his charisma and media skills than in his ability to repress dissent. Before being a strong man, Chavez is a charming entertainer. For now, Chavistas can organize religious ceremonies to pray for Chavez's health, share alleged intelligence reports with the press or give speeches calling for an armed revolution, as Chavez's brother did recently, but if you ask us, all the mystery that has been created with the "disappearance" of the current Venezuelan president seems more an electoral circus than anything else.

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"La Gran Recesión y la Izquierda" on Amazon.com

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

You can now buy our book "La Gran Recesión y la Izquierda" on Amazon.com, the leading bookstore in the cyberspace, and one of the largest in the world. You can make the purchase through this site and this company will send a copy of our book to virtually anywhere in the world, usually without customs or import taxes. Once you complete the transaction, you will get the book in about five days if you live in Latin America, less than half that time if you live in the U.S., and if you are located elsewhere, Amazon.com will tell you the approximate time of your order delivery.

By clicking on the image above you will be transferred directly to the page of "La Gran Recesión y la Izquierda" on Amazon.com, there, in addition to the purchase, you can browse images and details of the book.

Cuba: Tobacco dollars over public health

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In a section of the documentary "An Inconvenient Truth", Al Gore talks on the topic of smoking and its harmful effects on human life, but this piece of the film seems to be ignored by Fidel Castro and the Cuban communists, although they are apparently anti-global-warming activists.

Much of the civilized world has begun to pass laws to ban smoking in places that affect other people, as recommended by the World Health Organization; however, as if it were not enough to be one of the only countries still governed by a socialist dictatorship, Cuba also prefers to be one of the few nations to avoid anti-tobacco regulations in order to not harm the earnings of its state tobacco industry.

According to WHO, about 6 million people will die this year because of smoking, not including passive smoking, but in the socialist paradise of the Castro brothers, the "problem" to choose between health and dollars is defined in the style of Wall Street investment bankers, what makes more profit?, where tobacco capitalism wins easily.

While Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador, Peru, Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay and other Latin American countries continue to move to offer its citizens smoke-free spaces, Cuba continues to hold the annual "Habano's Festival", tobacco is still among the top three Cuban export products, and the pictures of Fidel Castro and Che Guevara with cigars in their mouths are part of Latin American communist culture.

A few years ago, the government of Cuba sought to promote anti-tobacco regulations, but they were nullified with the excuse of being intolerable for the people, which sounds highly implausible because we are talking about one of the most repressive dictatorships on the planet.

And in this we have another of the contradictions of Cuban socialism. Fidel prefers to write about the growth of deserts in Africa and toxic emissions in the northern hemisphere, but where he can do something real for life, in Cuba, where the Castro family has dominated for the past 52 years, he chooses to discuss the problems in foreign countries.

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"The Latin American left is leaning to the center"

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The prestigious publication "The Christian Science Monitor" published an interview in which the journalist Sara Miller spoke with us about the Peruvian elections (click here to read it in full). Luis Alberto said to this news agency that since the arrival of Ortega to Nicaragua's presidency in 2007, no other wannabe Chavez has appeared in the region because the leftists are now betting on centrist positions. We had already expressed this idea on other occasions, implying that Humala will most likely follow the footsteps of leaders like Mauricio Funes, in El Salvador.

Luis also told "The Christian Science Monitor" that this was because, although Chavez's speech is attractive to some people, the failure of the XXI Century Socialism in matters such as inflation, insecurity and power generation had shown to the neighboring countries that chavism is not a good example to follow, which, coupled with falling oil revenues -less money to buy foreign loyalties-, had reduced his regional influence.

Click in the image to enlarge it

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Kidnapping, the face of the Chavista security policy failure

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The Chavez government has failed miserably in public security policies, to the point that the authorities no longer give official figures on the exact number of crimes being committed daily in Venezuela, hoping that, in this way, the population will not be aware of the government's inability on the subject. All crimes have flourished under the administration of Lt. Col. Chavez, from drug trafficking to counterfeiting of documents, but is kidnapping the illegal activity that has grown more in these 12 years of XXI Century Socialism.

According to figures from the National Institute of Statistics of Venezuela, about 17 000 kidnappings occur each year in Venezuela, indicating that 47 citizens of this country are victims of this crime every day.

In 1998, the Venezuelan electorate believed that a military would solve the escalation of crime that took place in Venezuela during the nineties. The reality shattered ​​that expectation. Before Chavez came to power, kidnapping seemed to occur only on the Venezuelan western border, but now that Chavez has twelve years applying his policies, Venezuela has surpassed Colombia in kidnapping cases per year.

While Lt. Col. speaks of socialism and expropriation, Venezuelans suffer the kidnapping of a family member or a loved one. Worst of all, the police is involved in eight out of ten of these crimes, as some experts say, and courts have become, under the Chavez government, ineffective institutions that do not punish those who commit such acts.

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"La Gran Recesión y la Izquierda": Presentation in Cumaná

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Accompanied by family and friends, we presented our book "La Gran Recesión y la Izquierda" at the Casa Ramos Sucre, in Cumana, Sucre state, Venezuela. Before the event began, we were interviewed by the local media, speaking about the book and the political-economic conditions in Venezuela.

After opening, Luis made a discourse in which he thanked God and those present for the occasion to have this meeting, and then refer to the essay. Jose, for his part, provided further details of the book's theme in his speech, which was followed by a round of questions and answers, the baptism of the text, the toast, and the sale of the autographed book.

We broke the protocol at the end, sharing with the audience, exchanging views, taking pictures and sampling some snacks. Among those attending were the candidates for mayor of Cumana for Accion Democratica and Primero Justicia, Robert Alcala and Juan Barrozzi; the owner of the most important local broadcaster, journalist and businessman Marcos Lopez Inserni; the artist Ali Zapata; and a group of university teachers.

Humala roulette or the Fujimoris' revenge?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Without doubts, Ollanta Humala is similar to Chavez in some aspects: military officer, former coup leader, leftist, radical discourse, and even physically they have resemblances. However, althought Humala seems to have much affinity with the current Venezuelan president, we could also make a comparison between Chavez and Keiko Fujimori, but in another matter: the revenge motif.

The worst of Chavez was known by Venezuelans from April 13, 2002, after Chavez returned to power following the confusing events that led to the installation of a new government that lasted only two days.

Since 1999, the resentment was always one of the driving forces of Chavismo, but from that April 2002, Chavista leaders began a revenge campaign that is still used as an excuse to suppress civil liberties in Venezuela.

Nine years later, legal proceedings, media and tax harassments are still covered with the legends of April 11, 2002. Opposition leaders jailed, others exiled, purge in the armed forces, opposition owned companies nationalized or fined, and criminalization of protest are part of this history, where even students who complain about bus fare increases are immediately branded as "coup conspirators" by the government.

And all this is justified by the actions of an anti-Chavez government that lasted only two days, where times and "excesses" are incomparable to those supported by Alberto Fujimori and his allies in Peru for over ten years.

For us, voting for Humala in Peru is like playing a game of chance, because no one knows exactly how true are the words of this former soldier when he says he does not think imitating Chavez. But where we would speak of certainty is in the title of the tragedy that Peruvians will live if the daughter of the late dictator of that country becomes president: "The Fujimoris' revenge".

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Sixth Congress of the CPC: Paper socialism

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In the Sixth Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba, the guidelines that will govern the economic model of this Caribbean nation in the coming years were agreed. To maintain the facade of a dictatorship that still endures despite Fidel's convalescence, and the pride of not admitting internal idealogical conflicts, the discourse that graced the event was "socialism, revolution and more socialism", without making a stop at the anti-communist reforms of Raul Castro, or openly discussing the increasingly evident crisis of faith of the upper levels of government in the Marxist philosophy.

The previous Congress had occurred in 1997. At that meeting, the final document mentions the word "socialism" only three times, while the same word is invoked 26 times in the document prepared in 2011; demonstrating the Cuban leadership's desire to emphasize the socialist character of the post-Fidel era.

But the repetition of the word socialism, more than before, does not help if the signs that the Cuban regime shows illustrate serious internal contradictions. Fidel told the world few months ago, "the Cuban model no longer works even for us", while the Communist Party shouted the "continuity and irreversibility of socialism" at the past week's convention. Who should we believe?

Although Cuban politicians tried to keep the revolutionary rhetoric, the final document coyly warns a socialism that is unlike that of Fidel. The text says, for example, "the economic system will continue to prevail based on the socialist ownership of all the people over the fundamental means of production". We note the intentional inclusion of the word "fundamental" in the declaration, which leaves the door open for private sector participation in non-strategic areas of the Cuban economy, as Raul has been allowing in the small farming and other business.

Classical Marxism, in which Fidel believed, has among its ideological pillars the collective ownership of the means of production and the abolition of private property, regardless of whether these resources were fundamental or not. They may include 26 times more the word socialism in the conclusion of the Sixth Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba, but the socialist ownership of some means of production, the fundamentals, sounds more like a mixed economy model than a socialist one.

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Humala, like Chavez or like Funes?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Ollanta Humala and Hugo Chavez came from the military, they reached the same rank of lieutenant colonel, and are those who believe that yelling at a battalion is the same as governing a country. Ideologically, they seem to agree on several things, at least in words, because Humala also wants to come to power by talking about Constituent Assembly, referendum, nationalization, "a great transformation," and praising past military regimes. However, Humala's intentions and discourse are not entirely sufficient to assume that, if this ex-coup leader becomes president in Peru, we will see the consolidation of another Chavez in the Andes.

Humala's time is different. For 2011, the social, economic and democratic crisis in Chavez's Venezuela is well known; while the former governments of Lula and Bachelet, in Brazil and Chile respectively, are considered the two best examples for Latin American leftists.

The last imitator of the Venezuelan comandante appeared in 2007 in Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega. Since then, almost all leftist groups in Latin America have tended to resemble their Brazilian and Chilean comrades.

Mauricio Funes came to power in El Salvador in 2009, with the help of radical leftists and former guerrilla combatants. Chavista style policies were also feared in El Salvador in that moment, but Funes was wise enough to realize that following the Chavez path would be a mistake. Today, Funes is one of the most prestigious Latin American leaders because he is not ignoring democratic principles.

If he wins the presidency, Humala will have to choose in similar circumstances to those of Funes. Will he be so foolish as to copy the political crises caused by Chavez imitators in Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua?

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Chavez goes to the Souht: The counterattack

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Barack Obama came to Brazil, Chile and El Salvador last week. From there, he launched criticisms against the castrocommunist models of the region and congratulated the countries with democratic political systems. At the end of that trip, like two candidates vying to win over the electorate, Chavez announced a similar tour through Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia and Colombia, trying to reheat the anti-US sentiment and the sympathy for the Cuban-Venezuelan socialism.

Chavez's journey has the potential to make more noise than Obama's visit. Of the four countries to be visited, Bolivia is the place where Chavez has the greatest opportunity to cause more controversy, because Evo Morales is carrying, just at this moment, an intense campaign to recover the Bolivian coast, which surely will be supported by Chavez with his characteristic imprudence.

In another idea, the visit to Colombia and the non-visit to Brazil are events that should not be overlooked. The stop in the land of Santander evidence that relations between Caracas and Bogota are narrowing, despite ideological differences. While the non-visit to Brazil has a contrary interpretation. In his journey through the South, Chavez will border the Latin America's largest economy without going to say hello to President Dilma Rousseff, making it clear to Itamaraty that Chavez and his petrodollars are not happy with Obama's recent visit to Brazil, nor with the distance the new Brazilian president has shown with the "Bolivarian revolution."

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Obama in Latin America: The transition to democracy

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The U.S. president traveled to Latin America. Barack Obama visited Brazil, Chile and El Salvador, on a five-day tour organized by the White House. Drug trafficking, terrorism, free trade, human rights, etc., were among the topics covered, but of all these issues, the transition to democracy could be one of the most remarkable.

It is no coincidence that the three countries visited by Barack Obama have had a recent political history that shows the successful replacement of authoritarianism with democracy. Until 1985, Brazil was ruled by military juntas that were gradually replaced by civilian governments. In Chile, the dictator Augusto Pinochet was deposed in 1988 to make way for a golden age of democratic reforms. And in El Salvador, a bloody civil war ended in 1992, leaving behind years of political instability and despotism.

Obama's visit to these three countries has been accompanied by criticism of the Cuban political system and Latin American leaders "who cling to bankrupt ideologies to justify their own power", in clear reference to Hugo Chavez. In addition, the tour is parallel to the beginning of U.S. military operations in Libya and to the anti-dictatorship revolutions in the Arab world, making it clear that one of the main messages the U.S. president sought to send, during his visit to Latin America, is associated to revive the Western model of democracy.

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Polls for Peru's presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The upcoming April 10, 2011, Peruvians will elect a new president and members of the National Congress of the Republic of Peru. The contest involves several personalities of the Peruvian politics, like Alejandro Toledo, Keiko Fujimori and Ollanta Humala.

In one recent opinion poll, developed by Ipsos, the presidential candidate with more support is Alejandro Toledo -Peru Posible- with 27%; followed by Keiko Fujimori -Force 2011- with 22%; Luis Castañeda -Solidaridad Nacional- with 17%; Ollanta Humala -Gana Peru- with 16%; and Pablo Kuczynski -Gran Cambio- with 10%.

According to Peru's electoral system, if none of the presidential candidates gets 50% + 1 of valid votes, a second electoral round should be performed, involving only the two leading candidates of the first round. This means that, assuming the above-mentioned opinion survey, the 2011 Peruvian presidential elections would be decided in a runoff, in which Alejandro Toledo and Keiko Fujimori would participate. That is, a competition between the daughter of the last dictator of Peru against the leader of the so-called "peaceful resistance" that overthrew him.

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The male chauvinist nature of castro-chavism

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

We always remember that the governments of Cuba and Venezuela are enemies of democracy, but few times we consider the impact of such authority models on the so-called gender equality.

It is not possible to build a more equitable society, in terms of social roles of men and women, where a military warlord assumes he is the one with the right to govern. In Cuba and Venezuela, the scheme of one man that holds indefinitely the highest authority of the nation reinforces the stereotype that men are superior to women.

Worse, in the case of Cuba or Venezuela, it is not only that the same man is always occupying the role of head of state, but also the government is exercised with abuse of power and repression, inculcating despotism in the male population.

Even something as simple as Chavez's constant radio and television official interruptions symbolize the political discrimination against women under the Cuban-Venezuelan schemes. Meanwhile Chavez spoke in all media, for hours, no women in Venezuela have a similar right, which is understood by the general population, especially children and adolescents, as if the man had more right to speak and lead.

So serious are these issues that the third Millennium Development Goal of the UN seeks "greater participation and representation of women in politics and decision-making of States", and UNICEF indicates that "the distribution of socially constituted roles too often frustrate the potential of girls and women". Few days after the 100th anniversary of International Women's Day, it is not a bad idea to include the Castro-Chavista authority model in the Latin American debate on gender equality.

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Gaddafi and the Latin American radical left

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Daniel Ortega was the first to speak in defense of Gaddafi, giving moral and diplomatic support to the repression in Libya. Subsequently, Fidel Castro appeared, not only to offer help such as Ortega, but also to use Cuba's resources, according to journalist Hugh Miles, to send military pilots for bombing, using warplanes, against ordinary people in the Libyan streets.

And after a relatively long waiting time, trying to find a better opportunity, Chavez spoke, but he only reaffirmed the support their comrades in Cuba and Nicaragua did before him.

Due to the bloody repression of the protests taking place in Libya at present, Gaddafi has lost the support of almost everyone, including the Arab League. However, in Latin America, those who say the word "people" every day fall short when it comes time to do something truly democratic. For the Latin American radical left, the protection of a violent socialist revolution is above the defense of human rights, despite the political cost this position would have on their images, and despite being a small group that contradicts the widely held view on the situation in Libya.

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Castro: Down with Mubarak, long live to Qaddafi

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The double standard of Fidel Castro's opinion about foreign policy should lead him to consider changing the name of his column, placing "Contradictions of Fidel Castro" instead of "Reflections of Fidel Castro." In his last essay, the Antillean dictator leaves us with an effect similar to being sick, because after having weeks writing against the authoritarian regime of Mubarak in Egypt, and how the protests of that nation were glorious expressions of freedom, now the Communist leader says Qaddafi's case is different.

In his column "The Plan is to Occupy Libya", Castro returns to the old tale of the oil-hungry U.S,, widely used to justify dictatorships, to explain that behind the riots in Libya is the NATO imperialist hand to grab the oil of that country. Besides, the Cuban warlord described Qaddafi as a great guy that is victim of the international press.

With these arguments, Castro is trying to downplay the democratic wishes of the Libyan people, accusing demonstrators of being part of this alleged NATO international conspiracy, and encouraging other governments to give their support to the Qaddafi's socialism.

But the reality is that Qaddafi is more cruel than Mubarak himself, although both are members of the same dungeon of shame that history has reserved for all despots, including Fidel Castro. The Cuban dictator may write a thousand articles trying to wipe the image to his Libyan ally; however, they will never have more power than the voices of millions of Arabs who want freedom. In any case, the next Castro column would be more interesting to discuss the issue "When the Cuban people will rise up against their oppressors?".

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Embargo against Venezuela?

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In the Conservative Political Action Conference of USA, on Saturday, February 12, Republican Congressman Connie Mack proposed a full-scale economic embargo against the government of Hugo Chávez. This proposal would be agreeable to the majority of Venezuelans because such a measure could affect the Castro-Chavista regime, but things are not always what they seem.

Embargoes do not work, usually, against authoritarian governments. Retrospectively, the long U.S. trade sanctions against Cuba, Iran, North Korea or Syria, far from paving the way for democratic transition, have facilitated things for these repressive political systems to rule over economically weak states, where people depend more than before on government assistance. Resulting in fewer people dare to defy the despot.

Embargoes serve also as an excuse for autocratic leaders to evade responsibility for the inefficiency of their administration, by blaming the sanctions imposed by the outside for all the social ills, and to appeal to the idea of a conspiracy orchestrated by Washington as justification for jailing domestic opponents and shut down media outlets for allegedly cooperating with it.

Wait for the North Americans to solve almost always has been a bad deal for countries affected by oppressive governments. The desperation for immediate solutions has often led exiled immigrant communities in the U.S. to be sympathetic to any proposal to do something against their oppressors, and Venezuelans are not immune to that reality. However, a package of economic sanctions by the United States against Venezuela, to undermine Chavez, have no great expectations for what we have mentioned. Dictatorships end when the internal opposition is numerous and determined to change things, the recent case of Egypt, Venezuela in 1958 and Ukraine in 2004 are some examples.

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The Palmer code

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In 2009, Obama could select any of the hundreds of diplomats available in the U.S. to occupy the Vatican embassy, but he suggested Caroline Kennedy, whose liberal views on abortion and marriage were not welcomed by the Holy See. So he had to find someone else for the work, again Obama could choose among hundreds of candidates with profiles different from Kennedy's, but no, he elected Douglas Kmiec, an outspoken advocate of the same ideas that caused the rejection of the first option, and this one was also no accepted.

In the end, the U.S. government and the Vatican managed to find an ambassador to leave both sides happy, but not before Obama launched a clear reformist message against the ideas of the Catholic Church on marriage and abortion.

The dispute with the Vatican was settled, now we go to 2010, and among the many tasks that the US president must handle is the appointment of a new ambassador to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. The situation is similar to that described above, hundreds of names, tens of unique personalities, but Obama chooses Larry Palmer, the person who had once denounced the alleged growing discontent within the Venezuelan armed forces and the links between Chavez and the Colombian guerrillas.

The Venezuelan president's refusal is not strange, surely Obama will have to propose another person to the office in Caracas. However, the diplomatic language in the Palmer case is analogous to that used by Obama with the Vatican, although for different reasons. The White House is sending a message of warning to Miraflores, maybe rejecting the ties that the Chavez government would still maintain with the Colombian rebels.

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The Chavez moderation, first qtr 2011

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

From the Chavez's Annual Report and Statement in the National Assembly, on 15 January, many people associate the moderation showed at the ceremony by the Venezuelan president with the leader's desire to be seen, in the international community, as tolerant and democratic. An idea with which we disagree.

Chavez has never been afraid of foreign repudiation; rather, he draws much of his domestic support by promoting conflict with the United States, Colombia and other nations. In addition, the Venezuelan president has always been keen to insult the principal figures of the OAS, Human Rights Watch and the Inter American Press Association.

For whom, then, is the image of moderation that Chavez shows since the beginning of the year? To us, the answer to this question has only three words: The Venezuelan voters.

Chavez is very concerned about having obtained less votes than the opposition in the parliamentary elections of September 2010, which adds to the growing discontent that exists in Venezuela against the government. Chavez knows he has little time to entice back voters, and that his authoritarian image is one of his most rejected attributes. Therefore, he is repeating the sheep costume that, in the past, has yielded good results for his revolution.

After trying to take control of Venezuela through two failed coups in 1992, Lt. Col. Chavez won the 1998 election with a false discourse of respect for human rights, inclusion and participatory democracy. Following the severe political crisis of 2002, Chavez returned to power, acknowledging his mistakes, talking about amnesty and promising to open dialogue with his opponents, trick that, along with the use of all national resources in the government propaganda, let him win the 2004 referendum. Next comes the 2006 presidential, which Chavez addressed with that campaign "for love", obtaining excellent results. And now, near the 2012 presidential elections, Chávez puts back the mask of moderation, hoping the Venezuelans are the same gullible voters of 1998, 2004 and 2006.

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Cuba, living without the US?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

"Latin American peoples can live without the United States as Cuba has shown for over fifty years", Fidel Castro said in his Reflections on January 10. Which could be taken as true, of course yes, but only if the Cuban dictator was talking about a game of dominoes, or subjects that have nothing to do with the island's politics and economy.

Trying to catch the point of the communist leader, we could talk about what Fidel understands for "living", because being a citizen of a country where workers are exploited without the restrictions of a labor rights system is not what we would call a dignified existence. Or we could make mention of the irreplaceable scapegoat role the U.S. has played in the Cuban socialist myth, which has served to justify 5 decades of internal oppression. However, it seems best to comment on some economic data that completely contradicts the argument of the alleged Cuban independence from the U.S.

All Cuban newcomers in United States follow 3 key steps: First, seek political asylum; second, look for work/housing; and third, ask where is the nearest office of Western Union.

Thanks to formal money transfer services, Cuba receives annually about one billion dollars to refresh its economy, not including what is sent through informal channels. Not a great figure compared with the overall volume of the Cuban GDP, but since the 90's, remittances represent for Cuba the first source of dollars, providing more than any other export sector of the island. And most of these funds comes from the United States Fidel says is irrelevant to Cuba.

Ironic, but true, since the Castros installed their family dictatorship, Cuba has had the need to change its communist godfathers. The USSR and China in the initial stage, Chavez's Venezuela in the present. However, the only external economy that has never failed to send dollars to Cuba is a different country: The United States of America.

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And what will Cubans say?

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

After spending much of 2010 talking about the risks of atomic weapons and the alarming possibility of a nuclear disaster -that never came- by the tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States, Fidel Castro devoted the first column of 2011 , "What would Einstein say?" to the same subject, deliberately emphasizing an issue that is far removed from what really matters to his people: Cuba's problems.

From the man who threatened to launch nuclear missiles to the United States and who has ruled Cuba for over fifty years, the last thing we want to read is a list of nuclear accusations against the world powers, has he nothing to say about his own country? Rather than asking his readers about the possible reaction of Albert Einstein regarding the attacks allegedly directed by the Hebrew intelligence agencies and NATO against Iranian scientists, as Castro did in his "Reflections" of January 6, why not to ask Cubans about his country's poor level of development despite having tried communism for more than fifty years? What will Cubans say on the technological delay of the island, so far behind Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia and Chile, specially in the field of information and communication systems? What will Cubans say about the huge number of political prisoners of the regime? What will Cubans say about the way Fidel handed the presidency to his brother as being part of the family heritage? What will Cubans say about the fact that their country is going to be one of the last of Latin America to adopt a democratic system?

It is to these anxieties of the Cuban people that Castro should devote his meditations, because the debate on Cuban policy is also "almost inexhaustible", Fidel, quoting the same phrase you used in your column referring the nuclear issue. And you can be sure that depending on you and your brother the transformation of Cuba in a democratic nation, the problem is more interesting for the world and your people than any other you want to philosophize. You already said enough about global warming, the growth of deserts and an imaginary nuclear war, now tell us more about Cuba.

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Venezuela: two maxi-devaluations in 2010

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Beginning 2010, Chavez surprised Venezuela enacting a maxi-devaluation of 100% against the bolivar, even though, according to his words of 2008 and 2009, the international financial crisis would affect only the capitalist countries.

However, problems remain, so this year, in May, Chavez proposes a new exchange rate system -SITME- as a formula that supposedly would stabilize the value of the bolivar by reducing the speculation. But this only succeeds in creating a new business for entrepreneurs linked to the revolutionary process and making even harder the Venezuela's international trade, which ends up generating more questions about the true value of the Venezuelan currency and promotes the scarcity of other primary commodities.

Seven months since the creation of the SITME, the same president who mocked the bailout of Greece was forced to order another maxi-devaluation, this time of 65%, due to the deterioration of public finances in Venezuela, and despite the recovery of oil prices in international markets. A movement that not only shows the inefficiency of the SITME-dollar system, but also means more inflation for the country with the world's worst annual change in prices.

Definitely, 2010 was not a good year for ALBA countries in budgetary matters: To balance the accounts of their governments, Rafael Correa, in Ecuador, had to reduce employment benefits of many public workers; Evo Morales caused a severe social unrest in Bolivia when tried to increase fuel prices in near 100%; Raul Castro, in Cuba, is moving forward in his plan to dismantle socialism by the lack of results in 50 years; and Chavez was not able to think something less unpopular than launching two maxi-devaluations in the same year. Maybe in 2005, Chavez would have solved with great pleasure the financial problems of his ideological comrades, but this is another Venezuela, one that no longer have the funds to support the mismanagement of public money, even as the world continues to witness the biggest oil boom of all time.

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