The GOP primaries: Outsiders only

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Ron Paul is near the ideals of libertarianism, far from the neoconservatism that reign in the GOP hawks.

Newt Gingrich is Catholic, like Rick Santorum; and Mitt Ronmey is Mormon, like Jon Huntsman. These are not the most representative religions of "the Founding Fathers of the United States". Certainly, Mormons are protestants, but not the kind that symbolizes the concepts of the US conservative majority.

The last hope for neocons is Rick Perry, but although his religion, ideals and Texan bearing, he has low chances, according to polls; and even this guy has a negative point for neoconservatives: he was a Democrat until 1989, which is not what Republican hawks would call a perfect insignia of the GOP traditions.

The Democrats chose an outsider in 2008, but now is the turn for the Republicans. This time, McCain will not be in the race against Obama, so an outsider will face an outsider. Discontent with the status quo is still active in the 2012 US elections.

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Possible devaluation of the Venezuelan currency in 2012

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Every year of chavismo means for the Venezuelan currency, the bolivar, the risk of another maxi-devaluation. The two fixed exchange rates established by the government , CADIVI and SITME, are now at 4,3 and 5,3 per dollar respectively, with no probable modification to the CADIVI regime during this year due to the coming presidential elections.

But things are different for the SITME exchange. This system is used primary by corporations, and Chavez knows that the scarcity of basic products, caused in part for the severe foreign exchange restrictions,  is affecting his popularity. In a country so dependent of imports like Venezuela, if the government give more dollars to the private sector, entrepreneurs could increase the supply of milk, coffee, sugar, building materials, etc., which would alleviate the discontent in the lower classes.

For that reason, we expect the Venezuelan government to modify the SITME exchange rate to 6 or 7 per dollar this year, because at that rate, although higher is more accessible than the black market dollar, the government can offer more subsidized foreign currency to corporations, with electoral objectives, and can use the devaluation surplus in the presidential campaign via its social programs.

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Marxism inside the Socialism of the 21st century

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In a forum entitled "Socialism: theory and history", dictated in Cumaná, Venezuela, we presented to the assistants information about the socialist ideology, making emphasis in the Venezuelan government's version of this political philosophy.

There, we described the Socialism of the 21st century as a disordered doctrine that mix elements from liberalism, democracy, populism and bolivarianism, but whose dominant influence is the classical Marxism. This argument was explained analyzing the regime's symbols (red color and five-pointed star), its class struggle rhetoric and economic statism, and considering the foreign policy of Miraflores of maintaining close relations with extreme leftist governments like Cuba.