Chavista mismanagement: New source of risk for oil market

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Political instability in Middle East, a terrorist attack in Nigeria or Colombia, and a nationalization process in some part of Latin America are the classic problems that confront the international oil production.

However, in Venezuela, the Chavez government has introduced a new way to frequently disrupt the world oil supply: incompetence.

One day is an explosion in one of the Venezuelan oil company refineries because nobody noticed the high gas levels in the facilities, as happened recently in the Amuay installations.

Some days later, other PDVSA oil tank explodes because his managers took no precautions against thunderstorms, like lighting rod systems, as occurred in El Palito oil facility.

Since 2002, PDVSA has had at least 38 accidents related to incompetence: oil well fires (Cardon cases for example), explosions, tanker crashes, offshore platforms subsidences, workers' deaths due to faulty safety measures, etc.

The next time oil analysts search for risk in the international oil market, they should consider, too, which PDVSA workers are not qualified to do their job. Chavista mismanagement in the Venezuelan oil industry has not ended.

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Chavez near Pinochet's record

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Augusto Pinochet was the head of the Chilean government for nearly 17 years, one of the longest authoritarian regimes in Latin America. The South American general surpassed in duration others of his class, as Marcos Perez Jimenez and Alberto Fujimori.

President Hugo Chavez's government has 14-year in power, after two presidential terms. If he wins a third time, his regime would add 72 months more, for a total of 20 years, with the potential to extend for longer, thanks to the constitutional reform promoted by Chavez to establish unlimited reelection.

A third term would put Chavez over Pinochet in the sub-continental ranking of authoritarian governments that have lasted longer. Since then, he would be following in the footsteps of Trujillo and Castro.

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Lower oil prices are good, but for whom?

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

"High oil prices pose a real threat to the global economic recovery", told the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently, but it depends on the point of view. From the industrialized countries to the Third World, oil is essential for development. The problem is that this natural resource is the main source of national income for the regions that have it, mostly poor countries.

The IEA aspiration of low oil prices means more poverty for nations like Ecuador or Nigeria, and more benefits for the Group of Eight and China, the world's largest importers. That is, funding the growth of rich nations, or the "global economy recovery", at the expense of countries with high rates of poverty.

At this moment, something that really would benefit the global economy recovery is to lower the interest rates applied to loans of developing countries. That could help a lot in Greece, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

In the same manner, the technology produced in the rich countries can be sell with discount to the Third World in an selfless gesture, pulling millions out of poverty. Ah, but that is a price for the global economy recovery that the most powerful nations are not willing to pay. It is most easy if the oil producers sell at lower prices.

Everybody wants a good price for his products, whether are natural resources, money or technology. In this oil price controversy, why not apply the same standards used in the technology and financial markets? We should let the supply/demand forces set a fair price to crude oil and its derivatives, without political pressures, as happens with industrialized countries' goods.

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From Günter Grass to "Ozzie" Guillen

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

We support the Jews people on many issues, and we are critics of the Cuban dictatorship and the Iranian regime. However, we are dissatisfied with the sanctions applied to Günter Grass and Oswaldo Guillen for their remarks about Middle East and Cuba.

How would we react if a Cuban baseball manager were punished for expressing his admiration for Barack Obama, or if an Iranian intellectual were isolated for his opinions?

What was the crime of these men? Grass' poem, "What must be said", is a civic approach on international politics. And the words of Guillen on Castro, for us, are the result of recklessness. We can not agree with these remarks, but that is no reason to apply sanctions to them.

It is unthinkable to suspend a person from his position as manager for expressing his political belief. It is extreme to pretend to withdraw the Nobel prize to Grass, and declare him persona non grata in Israel, for writing his views about Middle East peace. The message for our society is: when someone says something with which you disagree, punish him.

Accepting these sanctions weakens our critics against repressive political systems for their intolerance and persecution of dissent. Even if we assume they said misconceptions, what should we do? In democracy, having an opinion is not a crime. We can object any idea, but to apply penalties against those who think differently is uncivilized and backward.

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Polls for Venezuela's presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

There will be presidential election in Venezuela on October 7. In this race, Hugo Chavez Frias, representing the incumbent party, will compete against Henrique Capriles Radonsky, the opposition's candidate.

The first public opinion reports about this election show that the current president has a considerable advantage over his opponent. According to a study of IVAD, mid-February, Chavez has 57.7% of voting intention, while Capriles holds 29,9%. Similar results found International Consulting Services, who said late February that Chavez has 58,7% and Capriles 25,7%.

In March, the measurements of Hinterlaces and Consultores 30.11 do not differ either from those presented above. Hinterlaces shows Chavez and Capriles with 52% and 34% respectively, and Consultores 30.11 with 57,5% and 26.6%.

It should be noted, however, that previous reports of these organizations have been wrong on several past elections. For example, IVAD and Datanálisis said the government was going to obtain more votes than the opposition in the parliamentary elections of 2010; and Hinterlaces claimed, also in 2010, that the PPT would become one of the main Venezuelan political parties, due to the high vote it would receive in the legislative elections.

03-22-2012: Consultores 21: Chávez 45%, Capriles 46%.

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Venezuela: Capriles or the uncertainty?

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Will Hugo Chavez remain in power until the presidential elections? How sick is he? Is there someone in his party that can replace him? Can he make a successful campaign under such conditions? There will be presidential elections on October 7? What can happen in Venezuela if Chavez dies? At this moment, no one can provide that information, considering we are talking about a regime that claims to be an example of democracy for the world.

The coming months will be hard to foresee in Venezuela. If Chavez returns from this new hospitalization, he will announce that this time it's all over, but no one will believe him because he said the same thing the first time. His return will only increase the rumors that his illness is terminal or that is part of an unscrupulous electoral strategy, adding further doubts to the atmosphere of misinformation.

If there are elections in October, and Chavez wins, no one can say how long he can stay in charge, that is, not even a hypothetical victory of the Bolivarian Revolution leader in the upcoming elections will end the confusion in Venezuela.

And if he dies or appoints a successor, before or after the elections, the unity of the ruling party will be tested. The acting president would have neither the charisma nor the authority of his predecessor to maintain the internal cohesion, and we do not know the risky scenarios in which the country could enter.

A victory of the opposition's candidate, Henrique Capriles Radonsky, would be the solution to these labyrinths. His government will confront surely a hard instability period at the beginning, but maybe it will be the most reliable option in the medium term.

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Venezuela-USA relations and Chavez's new Defense Minister

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Chavez names new Defense Minister a man that is being accused by Washington, since 2008, of aiding drug traffickers and arming rebels in neighboring Colombia, a decision that have implications in the domestic politics and in the international sphere.

In this occasion, our interest will be the external side of the designation of General Henry Rangel Silva as Defense Ministry, particularly in the USA-Venezuela relations.

The United States spent millions of dollars, annually, combating illegal drug production and guerrillas in Colombia, two linked issues. Part of this war is the identification of region's government officials that support the groups involved in these criminal activities, and according to the U.S. intelligence services, the mentioned Venezuelan general is one of them.

In that context, if the Venezuelan government names Defense Minister the same man accused by Washington as enemy of its cause in Colombia, the obvious reading is that Chavez have the intention of disrupting the relations with the White House.

Hypothetically, how we would understand the designation of a Defense Minister in Canada accused to be an al-Qaeda collaborator? As an act of hostility against USA that will affect the bilateral relations, without doubts. Why would it be different with Venezuela?

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The GOP primaries: Outsiders only

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Ron Paul is near the ideals of libertarianism, far from the neoconservatism that reign in the GOP hawks.

Newt Gingrich is Catholic, like Rick Santorum; and Mitt Ronmey is Mormon, like Jon Huntsman. These are not the most representative religions of "the Founding Fathers of the United States". Certainly, Mormons are protestants, but not the kind that symbolizes the concepts of the US conservative majority.

The last hope for neocons is Rick Perry, but although his religion, ideals and Texan bearing, he has low chances, according to polls; and even this guy has a negative point for neoconservatives: he was a Democrat until 1989, which is not what Republican hawks would call a perfect insignia of the GOP traditions.

The Democrats chose an outsider in 2008, but now is the turn for the Republicans. This time, McCain will not be in the race against Obama, so an outsider will face an outsider. Discontent with the status quo is still active in the 2012 US elections.

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Possible devaluation of the Venezuelan currency in 2012

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Every year of chavismo means for the Venezuelan currency, the bolivar, the risk of another maxi-devaluation. The two fixed exchange rates established by the government , CADIVI and SITME, are now at 4,3 and 5,3 per dollar respectively, with no probable modification to the CADIVI regime during this year due to the coming presidential elections.

But things are different for the SITME exchange. This system is used primary by corporations, and Chavez knows that the scarcity of basic products, caused in part for the severe foreign exchange restrictions,  is affecting his popularity. In a country so dependent of imports like Venezuela, if the government give more dollars to the private sector, entrepreneurs could increase the supply of milk, coffee, sugar, building materials, etc., which would alleviate the discontent in the lower classes.

For that reason, we expect the Venezuelan government to modify the SITME exchange rate to 6 or 7 per dollar this year, because at that rate, although higher is more accessible than the black market dollar, the government can offer more subsidized foreign currency to corporations, with electoral objectives, and can use the devaluation surplus in the presidential campaign via its social programs.

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Marxism inside the Socialism of the 21st century

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In a forum entitled "Socialism: theory and history", dictated in Cumaná, Venezuela, we presented to the assistants information about the socialist ideology, making emphasis in the Venezuelan government's version of this political philosophy.

There, we described the Socialism of the 21st century as a disordered doctrine that mix elements from liberalism, democracy, populism and bolivarianism, but whose dominant influence is the classical Marxism. This argument was explained analyzing the regime's symbols (red color and five-pointed star), its class struggle rhetoric and economic statism, and considering the foreign policy of Miraflores of maintaining close relations with extreme leftist governments like Cuba.