Evaluation of Jose Miguel Insulza as Secretary General of the OAS. Online Survey

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

During April 2009, we made the following question to the visitors of our Spanish website Morochos.org:

How would you rate the performance of Jose Miguel Insulza as Secretary General of the OAS?

We gave three options and each received the following percentage of votes:

1) Excellent, 8%

2) Regular, 19%

3) Poor, 73%

Observations:

Antidemocratic threats in Latin America have found in Jose Miguel Insulza the ideal neglected official, thus it does not surprise us that Insulza's work has been rated as poor in this survey.

During his presence at the General Secretariat of the OAS, Insulza has seen, among other things, Chavez's dream of destroying democracy in Latin America grow up, the shift of power between Castro brothers in Cuba at the best style of medieval monarchies, Correa's actions against Ecuadorian institutions, Uribe's intentions to remain in the presidency of Colombia, the racism with which Evo Morales makes politics in Bolivia and the increasing attacks on the press in the region.

So what did Insulza do? Simply wait and see, contrary to the duties imposed upon his position -especially in articles 110, 111 and 118 of the OAS Charter-

Due to his actions, it seems that the only concerns of the present Secretary of the OAS were to reintegrate Cuba into the OAS and to prepare his launch in Chilean politics, remaining unconcerned of everything else.

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Most popular Venezuelan opposition political parties in 2009. Online survey

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

From January 26 to February 15, 2009, we made the following question to the visitors of our Spanish website Morochos.org:

Which of the following Venezuelan opposition political parties do you identify yourself better with?

We gave five options and each received the following percentage of votes:

1) Accion Democratica, 15%

2) COPEI, 7%

3) Primero Justicia, 21%

4) Un Nuevo Tiempo, 25%

5) None of these, 29%

Observations:

The results correspond well with the votes obtained by political parties in the last regional elections in 2008. With the exception of AD, that although it appears here in the third place, it was the second opposition political party in getting more votes in last November's elections.

We may recall that in the November 2008 elections, UNT, AD, COPEI, PJ, PV and PODEMOS, in that order, were the opposition political parties that received more votes.

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National elections for deputies and senators, Argentina - June 28, 2009: Polls

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Next June 28, 2009 Argentines will elect half the 256-members chamber of deputies and a third of the 72-member Senate. One of the points to be considered in this electoral process is that it appears that, from that day, the Kirchner regime will suffer its biggest electoral defeat ever, which will substantially reconfigure Argentine politics.

This assertion is based on the fact that according to all opinion surveys, even in the most conservative case, the opposition to the government of Cristina Fernandez will get 57% of Congress seats. A result that would destroy the so far permanent parliamentary majority held by the Kirchners.

Kirchner's party is Frente para la Victoria, while the two more strongly opposing organizations are Union Pro and Union Civica Radical. The main figure of Union Pro is Francisco De Narvaez, while for Union Civica Radical is Margarita Stolbizer.

It is important that this electoral landscape, where the combined forces of Cristina Fernandez's opposition keep 57% of Congress seats, is based on opinion surveys that were conducted mainly in Buenos Aires and the country's main provinces, suggesting that the situation could be more favorable for the opposition in the countryside, considering that Argentine agricultural regions represent geographically the most antagonist sector to the national government.

Furthermore, it should be added that President Fernandez is in her worst moment of popular acceptance, with only 30% of the electorate supporting her administration, which makes things worse for the government.

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Study: The opposition and Chavez's radicalism

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Since last February 15 the world has seen how Chavez's government has radicalized his political project and abuses against opponents. So we seemed appropriate to ask people from the opposition about this new wave of government extremism and what they want to do about it. Below is a summary of some focus groups we did from May 12 to 16 with typical representatives of the opposition's supporters, from popular-class, with an age range between 21 and 45 years.

The focus group participants:

1) Are very affected by everything that's happening, they see Chavez as a dictator because of his authoritarian style. They believe that the government tries to strike fear into opponents.

• "Venezuelans are tired of government abuses"

• "Lieutenant Colonel does nothing more than threaten"

• "The regime is trying to scare people"

2) Believe that apart from going to elections, it is also important to protest actively. And some no longer consider voting a solution.

• "We must not only engage in elections, but also have to protest"

• “While there are protests there will be hopes”

• "I do not believe in an electoral exit ... that is ruled out"

3) Want to be involved in collective protest activities against the authoritarian government's actions. They mentioned things like seizing the streets, parades, student protests, nonviolent resistance, civil disobedience, to beat on pots and pans, to honk horns, to turn off lights, etc.

• “The only thing feared by the government is the people on the street”

• "The solution is to take the streets"

• "What you want, but not locked in our houses"

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Restoration of relations between Colombia and Venezuela in April 2009: Chavez's political motivation

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Besides the economic reasons we explained last week, another factor that must be influencing Chavez's decision to restore relations with Uribe's government, is the fact that those who were entrusted to import the “Bolivarian” political model into Colombia were not achieving any result:

The FARC and other socialist armies are losing the war, despite the political, economic, geographic and military assistance they have received from the Chavista government.

Piedad Cordoba is not the caliber of a Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales or Rafael Correa. So she would not win the presidency of Colombia, not even with one thousand Antonini Wilson-type briefcases.

And in the rest of Colombian leftist leaders neither candidate has the capacity to be a good Chavez's lieutenant.

Thus, the current Venezuelan president has no choice but to habituate his mind to the idea that Uribe will win a third term, or failing that, an Uribista successor will take his place. Therefore Chavez needs to maintain a fragile understanding with the Colombian government, until opportunities improve in Colombia, or until the next presidential tantrum, because as we all know, Chavista diplomacy is a matter of emotions.

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Purpose of the law that reserves to the Venezuelan state the goods and services of hydrocarbons primary operations

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Venezuela's National Assembly passed the Organic Law that reserves to the Venezuelan state the goods and services of hydrocarbons primary operations, a document that nationalized almost all private companies that provide PDVSA any service directly related to oil and that states, in Article 6, that all corporations expropriated will be compensated without regard to loss of profits or consequential damages, in addition that their assets will be priced according to book value rather than market value.

Chavez showed this law to the media telling us that this is another step of his government to bring Venezuela toward socialism and that these nationalizations are putting national wealth in the peoples' hands. However, and although it is not a lie that Chavez is communist, this time the nationalization of sectors that provide oil services to PDVSA has not only ideological but also operational purposes.

We think this because since oil prices are falling, PDVSA has been delaying payments to oil services providers, building up huge debts that compromise even more the future of the state oil company. and prompting many oil corporations to refuse to invest in Venezuela. What in the end has caused the decline in Venezuela's oil production and in the overall operations of PDVSA.

Then, the Organic Law that reserves to the State the goods and services linked to hydrocarbons primary activities was made to prevent PDVSA from stopping operations due to its problems covering costs related to services, because it will allow Chavez to expropriate equipments that were previously leased.

However, with these nationalizations the Venezuelan government is acquiring more debts -with a budget that already has a substantial shortfall- and PDVSA will have to draw cash from its reduced wallet to keep operations of the expropriated companies up and running. So if we add these factors to the notorious inefficiency of Chavism, the outcome will be that the Venezuelan oil industry will continue disintegrating in the hands of Hugo Chavez.

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Restoration of relations between Colombia and Venezuela in April 2009: Chavez's economic motivation

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In the past, Chavez's attitude toward Colombia was characterized by being very problematic. We can recall, for example, that the Venezuelan president called the world to grant the FARC belligerent status, then tried to give political recognition to Colombian rebels, insulted President Uribe in every possible way, broke relations with Colombia on several occasions, withdrew the Venezuelan ambassador from Bogota and expelled the Colombian ambassador in Caracas, closed the borders with Colombia, hampered bilateral trade, and even threatened to attack Colombian on different occasions.

However, all this disharmony with Colombia coincidentally happened when Venezuelan oil was being sold at the highest prices in history and Chavez had plenty of money. But now that the days of crude above $100 a barrel are gone, President Chavez was forced to rethink his relations with Colombians.

And it is not for less, Colombia is the second most important supplier of Venezuela -especially of food- bilateral trade benefits both countries and there are important joint energy projects -such as the Transoceanic and Transandino pipelines- that not only would facilitate oil transport but also would reduce Venezuela's dependence on the U.S. market.

So, due to the economic problems that Venezuela now faces, Colombia's contribution acquires another meaning. Unfortunately, every time that Chavez wants a good relation with a foreign country always sacrifice Venezuela -we say this for the border issue- And the worst is that the Venezuelan diplomatic relations are subject to Hugo Chavez's volatile temper, hence no one knows what stability have the agreements signed by Venezuela's current president.

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Is Latin America ready to face a swine flu pandemic in 2009?

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Despite all the measures that have been applied in the world to halt the advance of the so-called swine flu virus -influenza A(H1N1)- everyday an increasing number of countries report infected people.

In this situation we see that developed countries are facing this crisis with health policies that differ markedly from measures taken by Latin American nations. For example, in the United States, President Obama announced that his government has prepared 50 million doses of swine flu treatment, preventing any outbreak of this virus in his country, and that he has asked Congress for an additional 1.5 billion to purchase more antiviral medication, emergency equipment and fund vaccine development.

In contrast, in Latin America we see that almost all governments are limited to detect cases, but there is no plan to deal with a hypothetical situation of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic. We don't see Latin American presidents taking measures like buying ambulances -and we know that our region lacks enough of them- stockpiling antivirals to prepare for a potential pandemic, conditioning facilities for infected patients, or providing more money to hospitals to buy the necessary equipment.

Our politicians are not taking into account that WHO announced that all countries are at risk, so it is highly probable that several of our nations will report cases of swine flu.

What we have in Latin America are leaders who tell us everyday that we are prepared to meet any emergency, but all those who live in Spanish-speaking America know that our countries are not sufficiently organized to confront the current global health crisis.

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The 2008-2009 global economic crisis: Criticism of financial hypertrophy theory

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

To explain the current international financial crisis, some important intellectuals speak of a hypothesis that we have also heard at the recent World Economic Forum. The theory, which is incredibly repeated even in the most famous academies of finance, argues that the origin of the current economic problem is that contemporary economies have excessively developed the financial field, neglecting the primary production process.

"We have stopped manufacturing things to gamble at stock exchange casinos" these people say.

But if we look at the real functioning of the financial system in place, we will realize the weakness of this thesis:

Banks recycle savers' money to employ it in loans, which are used by producers, consumers and governments in their needs. Also, stock exchanges facilitate businesses growth through the inexpensive, and extremely effective, participation of new partners.

With the development of the financial sector, companies and governments now undertake larger projects, have massive manufacturing capacity, consume more goods and services, hire more employees and have increased their needs for financing, thus generating a process of continuous feedback that in the long run leads to a more integral economic growth.

The financial sector, in spite of being now underestimated by some experts, is one of the pillars of the contemporary process of production and consumption. This is why all developed economies in the world have a strong financial sector.

Without credit, or funds raised on stock markets, today's economies would not be one-tenth of what they are now, and none of the giant companies that we know would exist, all of them would be small familiar establishments at most.

Consequently, saying that current economic problems will be solved by limiting the financial sector's size and stimulating primary production, is an argument that lacks logic and historical foundations.

It is true that banking, and also trade, are processes that when viewed with simplicity appear "to produce nothing" as some experts say. But if we look at things in more depth, we'll understand that the role of these sectors is absolutely vital to manufacturers and economic progress.

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