Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Some contradictions of the radical left in Latin America

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Anticapitalist, but Venezuela makes money from oil, Cuba from sugar, and the FARC from drugs. All preferably negotiated in US dollars, and at the highest price that the free market is able to pay.

Anti-imperialist, but a follower of a political model imported from the Soviet Union.

Atheist, but a fanatic believer who cannot tolerate those who do not share its socialist faith.

Enemy of the development models invented by foreigners, but none of the founders of socialism were born in Latin America.

Preacher of class equality, but the party leaders always occupy the highest positions of power and live in opulence.

Critic of the FMI's academic discourse, but Marx, Engels and Lenin were intellectuals who tried to justify their proposals in a scientific manner.

Critic of the Pinochet dictatorship, but an admirer of Castro's dictatorship.

Critic of the private media, but the governments of Cuba and Venezuela are owners of large media chains, where the objective journalism is replaced by the communist party's propaganda.


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Saturday, October 24, 2009

Venezuelan legislative: Grassroots opinion about opposition's campaign

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In Venezuela, elections will take place in the middle of next year. Therefore, in order to investigate how the opposition supporters think the campaign should be guided, we did from 15 to 20 October a series of focus group sessions consisting of grassroots typical representatives, from popular-class, with an age range between 21 and 45. Following is a summary of these sessions.

The focus group participants:

1) Have preference for the primaries as a method for choosing candidates to represent them in legislative elections of 2010. They believe that this system is more democratic, participatory and inclusive.

  • "The primaries are the most democratic method for unity”.

  • "Enough of the clique and arbitrary selections. I want primaries”.

2) Although they prefer primaries over other methods for choosing the candidates, they believe that unity is a higher goal. That is to say, going to the elections together is more important than whether the opposition candidate is elected by primaries or consensus. In fact, they know that the primaries are not a guarantee of unity.

  • "Unity by consensus, primaries or polls ... but unity."

  • "Remember that Emilio Grateron won in Chacao in primaries, but Liliana and Muchacho, among others, continued in the ring".

3) They think that the opposition campaign must go beyond a unity candidate. They also want the opposition to propose a legislative agenda that focuses on solving the problems of Venezuelans.

  • "In the slums, people do not care if the candidate was elected in primaries or consensus, what they concern is unemployment and crime”.

  • "Unity, consensus, primaries, and the draft laws? Where is the legislative agenda?”.


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Thursday, October 22, 2009

Cuban oil dependency: Venezuela's importance

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In another article we show that Venezuela is not a vital oil supplier to the U.S. economy. But if we want to know about a country truly in need of Venezuela's energy resources, we must direct our gaze toward Cuba.

To function, the weak Cuban economy must import about 120 000 barrels of crude daily, according to IEA. But fortunately for the Cuban government, since Chavez is in power, Venezuela sends to the communist island -under very favorable conditions for Cuba- an approximate of 100 000 barrels of oil per day. What represents 83% of the Castro regime's imported oil requirements.

Cuba is supposed to pay for this oil through a confusing barter that goes something like this: Venezuela exports the oil, in return Cuba sends physicians, then, Venezuela must pay to Cuba a salary in dollars for each Cuban doctor. And what Cuba calls for each physician is so high that in the end Venezuela owes money, without Cuba having to spend a single dollar.

Thus, given the high percentage of Cuban oil demand supplied by Venezuela, and the unusual conditions under which Cuba acquires Venezuelan oil, it makes more sense to talk about energy dependence in the Venezuela-Cuba relationship than in the case of Venezuela-USA.


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Friday, October 16, 2009

Radical leftists more affected than the moderates in Latin America

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The global economic problems have caused declines in the popularity of many leaders in Latin America. But when comparing only the recent surveys of countries led by the left, we note that the extremist governments of this trend are being evaluated in a much more negative way than the moderates, with the exception of Evo Morales in Bolivia.

In Venezuela, according to IVAD, 64.2% of citizens think that Chavez should not continue in power beyond 2012.

In Ecuador, according to Gallup, Correa's popularity has fallen to 49%. His lowest since he took office.

In Nicaragua, according to the research firm M&R Consultants, 62.4% of the population thinks that Daniel Ortega is heading down the wrong track.

And we can also mention the case of Mel Zelaya in Honduras, who three months ago caused a political crisis just as he intended to follow Chavez's extremism.

In contrast, several moderate leftist leaders are doing just fine; as are the cases of Lula in Brazil, Bachelet in Chile, Vazquez in Uruguay, and Funes in El Salvador. Presidents who maintain high levels of public approval -all above 60% - despite the international economic difficulties.


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Thursday, October 15, 2009

Venezuelan medicine leads Cuban in recognition

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Under the Chavez government, the replacement of Venezuelan doctors by Cuban physicians is increasingly. A substitution based on the Castrist propaganda praising the Communist health care system, but that does not take into account the higher international recognition of the Venezuelan health science over the Cuban.

Just remember that Cuba has no Nobel prizes, while an immunologist and geneticist of Venezuela -Dr. Baruch Benacerraf- received the Nobel Prize of Medicine in 1980. Equally, Dr. Convit, also Venezuelan, developed an effective vaccine against leprosy that won him the medal "Health for All" of the Pan American Health Organization, the Prince of Asturias Prize, and being nominated for the Nobel Prize of medicine in 1988.

At another point, Cuba's ability to produce quality drugs is questioned by many international experts as Enrique Soto, head of Molecular Virology in the National Institute of Medical Sciences of Mexico. However, it doesn't happen with medications developed by Venezuelan specialists.

Furthermore, we cannot ignore that every Venezuelan beauty queen crowned by the world is also a success for the Venezuelan aesthetic medicine. A medical area where Venezuela leads Cuba widely.

In conclusion, supplanting the professionalism of Venezuela's doctors with that of Cuba, is to ignore the superior prestige of the Venezuelan physicians over the Cubans.


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Saturday, October 10, 2009

Venezuelan oil myth: The vital supplier

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

For decades, Venezuela has been shaping an energy ideology based on the assumption that Venezuelan oil is a strategic resource for the stability of the global economy. A notion that has been taken to extremes during the presidency of Hugo Chavez.

However, with a few simple calculations, we can demonstrate the error of those who believe that without Venezuelan oil the system would collapse.

According to the most optimistic estimates, Venezuela exports about 2 million barrels of oil a day, but the world consumes, according to OPEC, 83 million bpd. From which it follows that Venezuela covers only 2.4% of world oil demand.

And if we talk only about the United States, Venezuela's oil exports to that country reach approximately one million b/d. That is to say 4.8% of the 20.7 million barrels consumed daily by the US.

So, where is the relentless dependency of which Venezuelan politicians speak of? if statistically, Venezuela's energy exports are so small that the global economy, and the United States, could continue to function perfectly even if it received no Venezuelan oil.


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Thursday, October 8, 2009

Did Chavez reduce poverty with hyperinflation and unemployment?

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

On last Sunday, President Hugo Chavez said his government has reduced poverty by half and that within 10 years there will be no poor in Venezuela. But considering inflation and employment, two of the most important indicators for measuring poverty in a country, we realize that the president's statement is wrong.

During the 10 years of Chavez government, inflation has remained on average above 20% annually. It means that every five years of Chavismo the cost of living has risen by 100%. Reality that every day generates more misery, and makes it harder for the Venezuelan poor to improve their status.

Parallel to the above, the anti-private sector policy of the regime has led to the closure of thousands of Venezuelan companies due to lack of clear legal conditions, arbitrary expropriation and government tax terrorism. In that sense, this anti-business plan of Chavez has helped create more poverty because it have reduced employment opportunities for employers and employees.

Therefore, the failure of Chavismo to control inflation, in addition to the government's guideline against corporations-employment, are facts inconsistent with the statement made by Chavez of having reduced poverty in ten years.


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Saturday, October 3, 2009

The post-financial crisis: Defiant global unemployment

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Although the elements that announce the end of the recession 2008-2009 are increasing, one of the factors that still threatens the economy is the worldwide unemployment.

Since the financial meltdown began, just in the U.S. and EU unemployment rates have doubled; thus, now the figures reflect that about 15 million Americans and 25 million Euro-Citizens are unemployed. What implies that currently there are more people not earning income than three years ago.

However, those are numbers from the first world, so we can try to imagine how the job market is in the rest of the planet. Studies of the World Labor Organization indicate that 240 million people are unemployed worldwide.

All this leads to a state that threatens the post-crisis phase of the actual recession. As these millions of unemployed face a situation that prevents them from affording their basic necessities, and that impede companies from recovering the volume of sales/production made before the globe's current crisis.


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Thursday, October 1, 2009

The post-financial crisis: Oil with less risk?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In theory, oil prices should be back to higher levels with the recovery of the global economy, as happened after the US recession of 2001 and 2002. Nonetheless, in the world of post-financial crisis exists, for now, a political environment that could lead to different consequences in the energy market.

Oil prices hit their highest levels during the years 2003 to 2007, coinciding with a very peculiar international scenario: The war to invade Iraq was initiated and this became an absolutely unstable country, Venezuela was suffering a serious political turmoil, Correa and Morales (left-wing extremists) began their presidencies in Ecuador and Bolivia respectively, and Israel launched a severe military attack on Lebanon with unpredictable repercussions. Facts that directly involved important oil-producing regions, so it could be presumed that they contributed to the sharp upward movement in prices.

In contrast, today the international scene is less volatile in the oil-exporting centers, although this does not mean that instability will never resurface. But while this climate of reduced risk remains unchanged, oil prices might not react to economic recovery in the same way as they did during the boom period 2003-2007.


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