Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Analysis of the results of the Venezuela 2008 regional elections: Chavism won in quantity but Chavez’s opponents achieved the strategic victory

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

If we see the results of the November 23 Venezuelan elections in a general way, all indications are that Chavism demonstrated superiority over their opponents, as it took the majority of mayors and governors of the Venezuelan territory. So that we can say that, in quantity, Chavez was the winner.

But if we consider only the victories of chavists and opponents in areas of great importance, those who stand out because of population density, political influence and economic/cultural development, we could assert that the opposition was the winner of the strategic places.

We say this because the major population centers in Venezuela, as well as the capitals of national economic and political power, are in the territories: Capital District, Miranda State, Zulia State, Carabobo State, Vargas State, Bolivar State, Anzoategui State, Lara State, Tachira State, Aragua State, Chacao Municipality of Miranda State, Baruta Municipality of Miranda State, Sucre Municipality of Miranda State, Libertador Municipality of Capital District and Maracaibo Municipality of Zulia State. In these regions, the opposition won most of the seats.

Can you figure out an emerging political party in USA winning elections in California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois and Pennsylvania? This was what Chavez’s opponents did in Venezuela.

However, we must mention that the opposition didn’t take control of other key regions due to its inability to achieve unity, where the cases of Bolivar State and Anzoategui State highlight. With these States, the “strategic” victory over Chavism would have been greater.

On the other hand, it is remarkable for the opposition the Carlos Ocariz’s victory in the Sucre municipality of Miranda State, a region where Petare and many of the poorest areas of Venezuela are located. So this victory contradicts the assertion that dispossessed are with Chavez.

After the last elections, we must recognize that today Chavez’s opponents have gained power, becoming stronger than before. In the 2004 elections for the regional seats, the opposition had only won two governorships, now it has triumphed in six.


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2 comments:

  1. As soon as Chavez is removed (or leaves) office, hopefully Venezuela will join the rest of the Americas in the 21st Century. Until this occurs, he will be a threat to stability in the region and a menace to democracy in the world.

    ReplyDelete
  2. What you say is true, but we believe that Chavez is declining. He has already lost important governorships and the price of petroleum –where Chavez gets the money to fund his populism- has plummeted.
    The difficult times for Chavism are beginning…

    ReplyDelete

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