Study: What happens in Venezuela after February 15th?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

On January 20, 2009, we did a focus group composed of Chavez's supporters and opponents, to find out their perceptions about what will happen after the upcoming elections on February 15, 2009.

These were the most relevant conclusions:

- If the "No" wins, Chavez's opponents believe that the Venezuelan President will again attempt to reform the Constitution before the end of his term, or will seek other legal trick to try to retain power. It is obvious that this group is pessimistic about the meaning of a “No” victory on February 15, because they don't see this hypothetical achievement as a final event that results in the end of all Chavez's ambitions. Nevertheless, we note among these Chavez's opponents that they will continue pushing for their cause.

- For their part, chavistas believed that if "No" wins again, President Chavez will try a third time to propose his reelection amendment in referendum, or will design another way to remain in power. We noted that they are optimistic, confident that even losing in the upcoming referendum, Chavez will not abandon the government in 2013.

- It is interesting that chavistas and opponents share the view that if the amendment is rejected next February, Chavez will try to invent something to continue in office beyond 2013.

Related articles:

- Venezuela amendment 2009: Datanalisis and Consultores 21 polls

- Keller's survey on Chavez's proposal for indefinite reelection

- Venezuela amendment 2009: New Chavez's proposal is worse