Lopez Rafaschieri: Mexican legislative election, July 5, 2009: Polls

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Mexican legislative election, July 5, 2009: Polls

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Next July 5, Mexico will hold elections for the 500-member Congress. The three political parties with more opportunities to obtain seats are the Partido de Accion Nacional -PAN- the Partido de la Revolucion Democratica -PRD- and the Partido Revolucionario Institucional -PRI-

Of these, according to polls, the PRI is in the lead with 37.1% of popular support, followed by the PAN with 33.0%, the PRD with 16.5%, and the others with 13.4%.

The PRI is a center-left party with an incomparable tradition in Mexico, it held the power in that country for over 70 years, until it was defeated in the presidential election of 2000 by Vicente Fox of the PAN. For its part, the PAN is a center-right party, currently the ruling party, from which the president Felipe Calderon is a member.

Regarding the PRD we can say it is the most important radical left-wing party of Mexico, Andres Lopez Obrador is part of this organization, who was one of the most prominent candidates of the 2006 elections.

If polls are correct, there would be a change in Mexican politics in relation to what were the last legislative elections of 2006. This assertion is based on the fact that in 2009 the PAN would retain more or less the same number of votes obtained in 2006 -33%- but this time it will not take the majority of Congress as it did then, because now who will receive the most votes is the PRI, a party that won only 28% of the vote in 2006 and that is expected to get 37% in 2009.

But more critical is what is estimated for the PRD, that obtained 28.99% of the vote in 2006, and would receive only 16.5% in 2009. Obviously, many voters are migrating from the PRD to the PRI, which means that the radical left is losing support in Mexico.

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