Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net
The coming May 30 is the date on which Colombians will choose their next president. And while Alvaro Uribe failed to advance the reforms necessary to seek a third term, he has the consolation that his candidate has lead the polls throughout the campaign period.
According to recent opinion surveys, the candidate with greater voting support is from the Party of the U -Juan Manuel Santos- with 29,5%, followed by Green Party candidate -Antanas Mockus- with 24.8%, the Conservative Party -Noemi Sanin- with 16,4%, and the Liberal Party -Rafael Pardo- with 5,2%. Survey conducted by Datexco from 6 to 8 April 2010, 3.7% margin of error.
The preference for the Uribista candidate is clearly a vote of confidence in the policies of President Alvaro Uribe, particularly in relation to the fight against insurgent groups and economic liberalization. On the contrary, it is curious that no leftist politician enjoy significant acceptance for these elections.
Update 29-04-2010: Santos 34.2%, Mockus 31.6% and Sanin 16.2%. Survey conducted by Gallup from 22 to 25 April, margin of error 3.2%. According to the same study, Mockus would defeat Santos in the second round election by a 47.9% to 42.2% margin.
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There appears to be a huge groundswell for Dr. Mockus, even among people who until recently where Uribistas. In addition, it seems that should the election devolve into a second round, as now seems likely, Dr. Mockus might easily inherit liberal and Polo Democratico votes, making his election a real possibility.
ReplyDeleteDoes that reflect disenchantment with Dr. Uribe's domestic performance, a reaction against Uribista corruption, a reaction against oligarchism?
Who knows, perhaps it's just a reflection of hope for a brighter future.