Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net
Some Brazilian polling firms said, first, that Jose Serra was the favorite to win the presidency with a 10 point lead. Afterwards, they said Dilma Rousseff was ahead by a small margin, and they say now that there is a technical tie between the two main candidates in Brazil.
Initially, Serra was favored not so much for his work, but because of the economic downturn and the ruling party's time in government. Notwithstanding, economic conditions have improved significantly in the last months and Rousseff has managed to launch a more attractive proposition than simply being the Lula's candidate. While we note a weaker effort by Serra, currently.
Also, Brazil's electoral system has several deficiencies that compromise its transparency -fully automated and without manual audits of votes- which is an extra advantage that favors the ruling party, in this case, the coalition that supports Rousseff.
The pollsters expect a close fight and surely they will be jumping from one candidate to another when asking for the favorite in the remainder of the campaign. However, from our perspective, we don't see good possibilities for Jose Serra, so we think that Dilma Rousseff will be the next president of Brazil.
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