Venezuela after February 15, 2009: Chavismo's political agenda and its potential effects

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In analyzing the actions and words of senior chavistas in the days after the referendum of February 15, we obtained the following conclusions:

At the ideological level, the recent speeches of President Chavez and his ministers confirm that the current Venezuelan government will insist on its strategy of dividing Venezuelans, promoting polarization between Chavistas -supporters- and opponents.

After the adoption of the reelection amendment, the President and his ministers have repeated they will not work with different sectors until the opposition does not understand that "socialism is the only option," with Chavez as president forever. Government representatives have made clear that negotiation for them is a "dialogue between elites" that should be avoided. Therefore it was understood that any proposal different from chavismo will remain persecuted in the Venezuela of Hugo Chavez.

At the legislative level, the statements of the current Venezuelan government show that new laws are coming -and possibly new constitutional changes- however, we must assume that they will not legislate to protect domestic workers, or to combat the uncontrolled crime that plagues Venezuela, because Chavez's legal changes tend to point always in the same direction: penalize dissidents, radicalize socialism and increase the president's powers.

In terms of public security, President Chavez announced on the night of February 15 that he would redouble his efforts in this area, but apparently the new Chavez's program to combat crime will also be based on the idea that "crime is a product of the media conspiracy”. And to this “plan”, the government will add the story that opponents are hiring hitmen to raise crime rates and then blame the Chavez regime. Heterodox ideas that, in practice, will justify the current mess and criminalize opponents. Consequently, we don't expect overwhelming improvements of safety levels in Venezuela.

And on the diplomatic level, the tendency of Hugo Chavez's government to associate with extremists around the world will continue its course. And with regard to relations with the Yankees, the verbal confrontation between Chavez and the new U.S. President -Barack Obama- seems increasingly inevitable.

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- Disadvantages of consecutive presidential reelection

- Analysis of the results of the Venezuela 2008 regional elections