Polls for Venezuela's presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

There will be presidential election in Venezuela on October 7. In this race, Hugo Chavez Frias, representing the incumbent party, will compete against Henrique Capriles Radonsky, the opposition's candidate.

The first public opinion reports about this election show that the current president has a considerable advantage over his opponent. According to a study of IVAD, mid-February, Chavez has 57.7% of voting intention, while Capriles holds 29,9%. Similar results found International Consulting Services, who said late February that Chavez has 58,7% and Capriles 25,7%.

In March, the measurements of Hinterlaces and Consultores 30.11 do not differ either from those presented above. Hinterlaces shows Chavez and Capriles with 52% and 34% respectively, and Consultores 30.11 with 57,5% and 26.6%.

It should be noted, however, that previous reports of these organizations have been wrong on several past elections. For example, IVAD and Datanálisis said the government was going to obtain more votes than the opposition in the parliamentary elections of 2010; and Hinterlaces claimed, also in 2010, that the PPT would become one of the main Venezuelan political parties, due to the high vote it would receive in the legislative elections.

03-22-2012: Consultores 21: Chávez 45%, Capriles 46%.

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