José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net
Will Hugo Chavez remain in power until the presidential elections? How sick is he? Is there someone in his party that can replace him? Can he make a successful campaign under such conditions? There will be presidential elections on October 7? What can happen in Venezuela if Chavez dies? At this moment, no one can provide that information, considering we are talking about a regime that claims to be an example of democracy for the world.
The coming months will be hard to foresee in Venezuela. If Chavez returns from this new hospitalization, he will announce that this time it's all over, but no one will believe him because he said the same thing the first time. His return will only increase the rumors that his illness is terminal or that is part of an unscrupulous electoral strategy, adding further doubts to the atmosphere of misinformation.
If there are elections in October, and Chavez wins, no one can say how long he can stay in charge, that is, not even a hypothetical victory of the Bolivarian Revolution leader in the upcoming elections will end the confusion in Venezuela.
And if he dies or appoints a successor, before or after the elections, the unity of the ruling party will be tested. The acting president would have neither the charisma nor the authority of his predecessor to maintain the internal cohesion, and we do not know the risky scenarios in which the country could enter.
A victory of the opposition's candidate, Henrique Capriles Radonsky, would be the solution to these labyrinths. His government will confront surely a hard instability period at the beginning, but maybe it will be the most reliable option in the medium term.
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