Venezuela Amendment 2009: Analysis of the results of the February 15th referendum to approve the indefinite reelection

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

On February 15th, the CNE announced that the Venezuelans approved the indefinite reelection for all popular elected officials with a vote of 54.36% for the "Yes" and 45.63% for the "No". In this event, we believe that there are a number of conclusions that should be evaluated by chavists and opponents.

First, it is a fact that for the next presidential election -2012- the government's candidate will be Hugo Chavez again.

Second, although Chavez has won the right to run for reelection indefinitely, he did it by a margin of just 8.7%, which means that technically the Venezuelans are split in half . This is important because it indicates that the opposition has enough chance to beat the current Venezuelan president in 2012, considering that Chavez will lose popular support during the next 4 years, because he will not solve the problems of crime, political corruption, inflation and homelessness experienced by Venezuelans.

Third, assuming the recent election results, what will happen if the opposition takes at least 45% of parliamentary positions in the National Assembly elections scheduled for 2010? In this scenario the opposition would have more opportunity to counterbalance the government and continue conquering space, as happened with the governorships of major states in the regional elections of 2008.

Fourth, with only half of the country ready to follow him, can Chavez radicalize his policy agenda to transform Venezuela into a Cuba-style socialist republic? We think not, because for that he will need much more legitimacy.

So, we think that even with the amendment's victory, the future has more difficulties than opportunities for the Chavez revolution. Principally because of the new economic reality: Oil prices below $40 a barrel, inflation at 30%, the public deficit widening, higher taxes, devaluation and drastic cuts in social programs.

Related articles:

- Is indefinite reelection the best option for Venezuela?

- Disadvantages of consecutive presidential reelection

- Analysis of the results of the Venezuela 2008 regional elections