Venezuela Amendment 2009: Most likely scenario for the February 15th referendum

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

According to our surveys and opinion polls we have consulted from other organizations, the “No” option has an advantage over the "Yes" of 15 points. Indicating that the majority of Venezuelans are not in favor of the reelection amendment.

This gives us an overview of the situation regarding the coming referendum, which is explained by the Venezuelan's strong democratic sense and for the excellent work that students have done in opposition to the amendment. Moreover, other studies show that many Venezuelans are starting to want a new President, for the current government's failures in fighting inflation and crime.

However, we cannot overlook that Hugo Chavez' government will use its political machine and institutional power to try to win the referendum. Already in the past the regime has used intimidation strategies: Tascon's list, Maisanta's list and threats of the PDVSA's president to employees are some of the most infamous. Besides, populist moves have been implemented, as the distribution of student subsidies, appliances, work and money to conquer the will of those who do not want the option of the government. Not to mention the advertising deployment of the public bureaucracy in favor of Hugo Chavez.

The government will also seek to mobilize their voters early to reduce abstinence that harm it in the Constitutional referendum of 2007. To do this, it will use thousands of public and private vehicles, as well as house-by-house pressure from their district leaders.

This leads us to infer that, despite the considerable advantage that the "No" option has in the polls, on election day the CNE may announce a victory of the "No" over the "Yes" of one or two points of difference. That is, the result that we believe to be the most probable is that the CNE will show figures of 51% for the "No" and 49% for the "Yes".

Related articles:

- Morochos Focus Group: What happens if the "No" wins?

- Morochos online poll on the amendment Venezuela 2009

- Venezuela amendment 2009: Datanalisis and Consultores 21 polls